4 November 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Pound weakened amid heightening of Brexit uncertainty.
Pound sterling swooped against major currencies such as greenback following Brexit party leader Nigel Farage decided to stand out from participating in UK general election but vowed to campaign on behalf of his party aggressively. Nigel Farage has been tried and failed to win a parliamentary seat since three years ago and now he wanted to lead his populist party to win a majority seat in upcoming general election in order to achieve a better Brexit deal for UK. On the other side, this decision has threaten and weaken the Conservatives party which belongs to Boris Johnson by splitting the pro-Brexit vote and tipping some close seats to the opposition party. Besides, Nigel Farage also reiterated that if Boris Johnson continues to stick with the latest deal, he will continue to fight against him in the general election as that is not a Brexit, said in the BBC interview. As of writing, GBP/USD inched down 0.02% to 1.2930. On the other hand, the pair of AUD/USD quoted up 0.14% to 0.6920 despite Retail Sales data hinted sign of weakening in economy activity. According to Australian Bureau of Statistic, Retail Sales data was came in at weaker pace of 0.2% when comparing to economist forecast of 0.5%, showing the willingness of consumer on spending has declined significantly. However, recent progress in trade talk between China and US has lifted up the market sentiment toward risky asset, eventually formed a support for AUD/USD from falling further.
In the commodities market, crude oil price ticked down 0.34% to $55.95 per barrel after hitting one week highs level. Based on recent economic data from China, manufacturing data showed an upbeat result and thus dragged up the market expectation on the future demand of this black commodity. On the other hand, gold price quoted down 0.12% to $1,512.20 a troy ounce due to heightening of market risk sentiment.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:55 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Oct) | 41.7 | 41.9 | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – Construction PMI (Oct) | 43.3 | 44.0 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 97.30. However, MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the index to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 97.30, 97.75
Support level: 96.85, 96.50
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.2820. However, MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short term toward the support level at 1.2820.
Resistance level: 1.3035, 1.3170
Support level: 1.2820, 1.2665
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.1125. MACD which illustrate upward bias momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher toward the resistance level at 1.1200.
Resistance level: 1.1200, 1.1240
Support level: 1.1125, 1.1030
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower levels. MACD which begins to form bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 108.40.
Resistance level: 108.40, 108.85
Support level: 107.80, 107.20
AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.6880. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.6965.
Resistance level: 0.6965, 0.7065
Support level: 0.6880, 0.6795
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior closure above 0.6440. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.6490.
Resistance level: 0.6490, 0.6555
Support level: 0.6440, 0.6410
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.3145. MACD which illustrate downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.3085.
Resistance level: 1.3145, 1.3210
Support level: 1.3085, 1.3020
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower levels. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.9885.
Resistance level: 0.9885, 0.9945
Support level: 0.9810, 0.9760
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its price to be traded lower toward the support level at 55.40.
Resistance level: 56.80, 58.55
Support level: 55.40, 54.65
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1511.95. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests its price to extend its losses after closing below the support level.
Resistance level: 1525.50, 1550.85
Support level: 1511.95, 1495.50