03 January 2020 Afternoon Session Analysis
Dollar slumped amid escalating in Middle East tensions.
Dollar index which gauge its value against a basket of six major currencies plummeted after exacerbating of geopolitical risks between US and Iran. According to Iraqi state television, Iranian general Qassem Suleimani has been killed in an air strike at Baghdad International Airport early today. In this round of drone attack, there are total seven people were killed by the missile, blaming US was the country who fired the missile while no immediate comment from US as of now. The death of Iranian general instantly trigger huge demand for safe haven asset as Qassem is the second most powerful person in Iran, believingly that Iranian will protest and retaliate against US while a war seemingly is unavoidable. Back then, tensions between US and China has risen aggressively after US implemented sanctions against Iran crude oil exports due to violation of treaty. Afterward, the tensions between both countries does not seem to be faded over time while still remain tit-for-tat. However, US Defense Secretary Mark Esper said that ‘the game has changed’ after Iran attacked the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, US President Donald Trump immediately assigned 750 soldiers to Middle East campsite as a rapid force available for use if war happened. During Asian trading session, dollar index inched down 0.09% to 96.75.
In commodities market, crude oil prices skyrocketed 2.91% to $63.00 per barrel following heightening of geopolitical tensions in Middle East. This round of air strike has escalated the market worries over the disruption of crude oil production in Iran, subsequently reduce the global oil supply. Besides, gold prices rose 0.76% to $1540.20 a troy ounce amid the death of Iranian general Qassem lifted up the market’s risk avoidance sentiment.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
03:00 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
(4th)
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:55 | EUR – German Unemployment Change (Dec) | -16K | 5K | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – Construction PMI (Dec) | 45.3 | 45.9 | – |
| 23:00 | USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Dec) | 48.1 | 49.0 | – |
| 00:00
(4th) |
CrudeOIL – EIA Crude Oil Inventories | -5.474M | -3.288M | – |
| 02:00
(4th) |
CrudeOIL – U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 677 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 96.50. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the dollar to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 96.50, 96.95
Support level: 96.05, 95.60
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.3095. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.3225, 1.3320
Support level: 1.3095, 1.2965
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the support level 1.1175. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.1105.
Resistance level: 1.1175, 1.1250
Support level: 1.1105, 1.1045
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 107.90. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 108.45, 108.90
Support level: 107.90, 107.40
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.6990. MACD which display persistent bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.6925.
Resistance level: 0.6990, 0.7040
Support level: 0.6925, 0.6885
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.6710. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.6630.
Resistance level: 0.6710, 0.6785
Support level: 0.6630, 0.6565
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded flat while currently testing near the resistance level 1.3010. However, MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to be traded higher after it breaks above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.3010, 1.3065
Support level: 1.2925, 1.2865
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.9725. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.9650.
Resistance level: 0.9725, 0.9780
Support level: 0.9650, 0.9590
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 62.35. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 63.75.
Resistance level: 63.75, 66.25
Support level: 62.35, 60.85
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1533.25. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1556.95.
Resistance level: 1556.95, 1589.00
Support level: 1533.25, 1514.00