16 January 2020 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar slumped after trade deal was signed.
Dollar Index slumped yesterday after United Stated and China signed a “phase-one” trade deal, spurring some trade optimism between the both countries. According to Reuters, the centerpiece of the deal is a pledge by China to purchase at least an additional $200 billion worth of U.S. farm products and other goods and services over two years, while the United Stated promised that they will roll back some tariffs from China. Nonetheless, investors would need to focus on the effectiveness in the implementation of the phase one deal while also scrutinizing the latest updates with regards of the “phase-two” trade deal between the U.S and China in order to receive a further trading signal. Besides that, the dollar index received a further bearish momentum over the backdrop of the bleak economic data from the United Stated. According to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for the last month came in at 0.1%, missing the economist forecast of 0.2%, which dialed down the market optimism toward the economic growth in the United Stated while prompting a higher expectation for the rate cut in order to boost the economic progression in future. As of writing, dollar index slumped 0.18% to 96.89.
In the commodities market, the crude oil price appreciated by 0.07% to $58.12 per barrels as of writing. The oil markets edged higher following the inventory data was released. According to Energy Information Administration (EIA), the U.S. Crude Oil Inventories notched down from the previous reading of 1.164M to -2.549M, better than the economist forecast of -0.474M. However, investors worried that the oil market could get into another oversupply situation from seasonal lows in consumption, which limited the gains experienced by this black commodity. On the other hand, as of writing, the gold price appreciated by 0.03% to $1556.10 per troy ounces amid to weaker Greenback.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
20:30 EUR ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:00 | EUR – German CPI (MoM) (Dec) | 0.5% | 0.5% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) | 0.1% | 0.5% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jan) | 2.4 | 3.8 | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) | 0.2% | 0.3% |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 97.10. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the index to extend its losses toward support level at 96.65.
Resistance level: 97.10, 97.60
Support level: 96.65, 96.15
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.2960. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1.3140.
Resistance level: 1.3140, 1.3270
Support level: 1.2960, 1.2800
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.1160. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.1160, 1.1185
Support level: 1.1130, 1.1090
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded within a range while currently near the resistance level at 110.25. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 110.25, 111.10
Support level: 109.55, 108.55
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.6920. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.6920, 0.6960
Support level: 0.6885, 0.6845
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.6635. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.6635, 0.6665
Support level: 0.6605, 0.6560
USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.3055. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 1.3045.
Resistance level: 1.3055, 1.3110
Support level: 1.2965, 1.2905
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.9670. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.9670, 0.9740
Support level: 0.9585, 0.9505
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 57.90. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 59.25, 60.75
Support level: 57.90, 56.45
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1550.30. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1578.35.
Resistance level: 1578.35, 1608.90
Support level: 1550.30, 1528.75