28 January 2020 Afternoon Session Analysis
Dollar fall amid heightening of rate cut’s probability.
Dollar index which gauge its value against a basket of six major currencies hovered near the two month highs level while markets are still scrutinizing the next move of Federal Reserve (Fed) in term of monetary policy. Despite Federal Reserve had adjusted the US cash rates downward for 3 times in the year of 2019, majority of the investors are still seeing Fed members will likely to have another round of rate cut in the upcoming Fed meeting. According to the Fed Rate Monitor Tool, the probability of rate cut has been rising to 87.8% while the previous day probability was still 86.7%, indicating that the unfolding monetary policy in US does not satisfied the ‘appetite’ of investors. Moreover, sluggish economy in US which shown by recent lackluster economic data also further cemented the reasonableness of a rate cut is necessary for current US economy. As of writing, dollar index inched down 0.02% to 97.70. On the other hand, the pair of EUR/USD notched up 0.05% to 1.1020 after falling to the lowest level since 2th Dec 2019 amid downbeat data continues to weigh on this single currency. According to German Ifo Institute, German Ifo Business Climate Index came in at 95.9, lower than the forecast of economist at 97.0, showing that the business sector in Germany have a dim in future.
As for commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.09% to $52.82 per barrel amid rising of oil rig count in US indicating higher production of crude oil could be expected in the future while prompting investors to doubt against the issue of supply glut. Besides, gold price dropped 0.13% to $1579.65 a troy ounce amid heightening of risk-on sentiment from investors.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
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Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
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Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 21:30 | USD – Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Dec) | -0.1% | 0.2% | – |
| 23:00 | USD – CB Consumer Confidence (Jan) | 126.5 | 128.0 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retrace from the higher levels. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the index to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 97.90, 98.15
Support level: 97.65, 97.20
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing at the support of 1.3055. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.3135, 1.3200
Support level: 1.3055, 1.3010
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate diminished bearish momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.1050, 1.1080
Support level: 1.1005, 1.0990
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 109.20, 109.65
Support level: 108.50, 108.00
AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing at the support of 0.6750. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower after closing below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.6790, 0.6840
Support level: 0.6750, 0.6700
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing at the support of 0.6540. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.6590, 0.6650
Support level: 0.6540, 0.6490
USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 1.3215.
Resistance level: 1.3215, 1.3275
Support level: 1.3140, 1.3060
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains in short-term.
Resistance level: 0.9725, 0.9780
Support level: 0.9670, 0.9615
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded flat near the support of 52.05. MACD which begin to form bullish signal suggest its price to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 54.20, 56.25
Support level: 52.05, 49.55
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing at the support near 1580.00. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its price to extend its losses after closing below the support level.
Resistance level: 1598.80, 1615.00
Support level: 1580.00, 1563.20