1 February 2021 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar recovered following equity turmoil.
The dollar index which gauges its value against a basket of six major currencies surged amid the recent swing in Gamestop (GME) share price brushed up the appeal of safe haven dollar. Last week, a war between retails investors and hedge funds begun, where the retails investors decided to punish the Wall Street hedge fund and launched a co-ordinated buying spree in GME counter. As the GME share price were fuelled by exploded buying volume, Wallstreet hedge fund institution such as Melvin Capital had suffered heavy losses by betting against its share price, being forced to close out the position and repositioned the portfolio. With the backdrop of turmoil in equity market, part of the investors chose to run away from stock market while holding more cash at the moment and eventually boosted up the value of dollar index. Moreover, the value of US dollar raised up further after Johnson and Johnson (J&J) has reported that their single dose vaccine was only 66% effective in protecting human from coronavirus infection. The disappointed and inferior trial result in combating Covid-19 has lifted up the market concern over the pace of global recovery in future. As of writing, dollar index rose 0.09% to 90.55.
In the commodities market, the crude oil price depreciated by 0.63% to $51.80 per barrel amid heightening of market worries over the effectiveness of vaccine against Covid-19. In the recent highly anticipated announcement, Johnson & Johnson (J&J) reported a weaker-than-expected Phase 3 vaccine data while comparing to the previous vaccine producer such as Moderna and Pfizer. The inferior result in J&J vaccine’s effectiveness dragged down the market optimism toward future oil demand. Besides, gold price rose 0.35% to $1855.05 per troy ounce amid disappointment of vaccine result irritated the market safe-haven behaviour.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
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Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
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Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:55 | EUR – German Manucturing PMI (Jan) | 58.3 | 57.0 | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – Manufacturing PMI (Jan) | 52.9 | 52.9 | – |
| 23:00 | USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan) | 60.5 | 60.0 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. However, MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the index to undergo technical correction in short term.
Resistance level: 90.60, 91.10
Support level: 90.25, 89.90
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.3695. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level at 1.3695.
Resistance level: 1.3750, 1.3805
Support level: 1.3695, 1.3620
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.2155. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.2100.
Resistance level: 1.2155, 1.2205
Support level: 1.2100, 1.2065
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 104.70. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 105.15.
Resistance level: 105.15, 105.50
Support level: 104.70, 104.35
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.7635. MACD which illustrated bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.7565.
Resistance level: 0.7635, 0.7670
Support level: 0.7565, 0.7505
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.7165. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.7090.
Resistance level: 0.7165, 0.7240
Support level: 0.7090, 0.7015
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.2790. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.2865.
Resistance level: 1.2865, 1.2930
Support level: 1.2790, 1.2695
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.8915. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level at 0.8915.
Resistance level: 0.8915, 0.8955
Support level: 0.8885, 0.8855
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 51.65. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 52.60, 53.75
Support level: 51.65, 50.65
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1861.75. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 1842.90.
Resistance level: 1861.75, 1871.90
Support level: 1842.90, 1825.40