1 July 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Investors risk appetite boost dollar, safe-haven falls.
Dollar index measuring against a basket of six major currency pairs was gaining by 0.42% to 96.02 during early European trading session following reports of resuming trade talks between US and China as well as agreement to put additional tariffs on halt. With trade talks resuming between the two economic powerhouse, market sentiment was lifted higher as investors sold off their safe-haven bets and enter into stronger dollar. With US Federal Reserve interest rate still high above 2%, diminishing risk in the market caused investors to invest in dollar instead of pound and euro market where uncertainties still haunt the market. For this week, investors will place their focus on the Nonfarm Payroll data to gauge US job conditions as well as the Average Hourly Earnings data to gauge consumer’s spending power and inflationary status of US. In other news, pair of AUD/USD fell by 0.38% to 0.6992 as of writing despite positive sentiment from trade talks. The Aussie dollar is expected to undergo larger fluctuations ahead of Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision and statement. RBA is widely expected to cut their cash rate as much as 25 basis point from 1.25% to 1.00% which will record a new historical low for their rate.
As for commodities market, crude oil price further its gains by 2.93% to $59.87 per barrel following diminishing tensions from the trade war as well as agreement between OPEC and Russia to further production cut throughout the year 2019. Investors will focus on further production cut details which is expected to be discussed during the OPEC meeting on 1st and 2nd of July. On the other hand, gold price further its losses by 1.54% to $1,387.65 a troy ounce due to investors heightened risk appetite as they sell off their safe-haven assets and enter into stronger dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day CAD Canada Day
All Day HKD SAR Region Establishment Day
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
15:00 CNY PBOC Gov Yi Speaks
Tentative CrudeOIL OPEC Meeting
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:55 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Jun) | 45.4 | 45.4 | – |
| 15:55 | EUR – German Unemployment Change (Jun) | 60K | -3K | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Manufacturing PMI (Jun) | 49.4 | 49.2 | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun) | 52.1 | 51.0 | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Manufacturing Employment (Jun) | 53.7 | 52.5 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 95.80. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish momentum signal suggest the dollar to extend its gains towards the resistance level 96.35.
Resistance level: 96.35, 96.90
Support level: 95.80, 95.35
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded flat near the support level 1.2675. Due to lack of momentum and clear signal from MACD, it is suggested to wait until further signal appear such as breakout below the support level or rebound from the support level before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1.2750, 1.2810
Support level: 1.2670, 1.2610
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1.1335. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.1280.
Resistance level: 1.1335, 1.1395
Support level: 1.1280, 1.1235
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 108.15. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 108.70
Resistance level: 108.70, 109.15
Support level: 108.15, 107.60
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the support level 0.7000. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.6965.
Resistance level: 0.7000, 0.7035
Support level: 0.6965, 0.6930
NZUDSD, H4: NZDUSD was lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.6720. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.6675.
Resistance level: 0.6720, 0.6770
Support level: 0.6675, 0.6640
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.3080. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.3160.
Resistance level: 1.3160, 1.3230
Support level: 1.3080, 1.2970
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 0.9800. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.9855.
Resistance level: 0.9855, 0.9910
Support level: 0.9800, 0.9750
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 59.60. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 61.05.
Resistance level: 61.05, 62.90
Support level: 59.60, 57.95
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1386.35. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 1403.15, 1421.40
Support level: 1386.35, 1370.00