1 July 2021 Afternoon Session Analysis
Pound slips following UK economic woes.
The pound sterling which traded against the greenback and other currency pairs have weakened after recent weak data confirmed that U.K economy contracted during Q1. According to Office for National Statistics, UK GDP have fell by -1.6% in the first quarter, weaker than market expectation of -1.5%. The contraction was caused by a reduction in consumer spending as a result of the movement control order implemented earlier this year. The data was also in line with signals from the Central Bank of England to maintain loose policy as the UK remains at risk from coronavirus and economic momentum is still fragile. Meanwhile, surging coronavirus cases in the U.K also added further pressure for the pound. Yesterday, the UK recorded a total of 26,068 new coronavirus cases, the highest level since late January. Investors are worried that the increase in coronavirus cases will affect consumer spending and it will have an impact on the momentum of the economic recovery for the foreseeable future. At the time of writing, GBP/USD fell 0.07% to 1.3818.
In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.47% to $74.08 per barrel as of writing following optimism towards fuel demand even with planned output hikes. According to an internal OPEC report, the oil market would be in deficit in short term while Goldman Sachs forecast that the demand will rise by a further 2.2 million bpd by the end of 2021. OPEC is meeting its 10 oil producing allies led by Russia on Thursday to consider output hikes after months of sustained crude price hikes. On the other hand, gold price slips 0.09% to $1773.87 a troy ounce at the time of writing following dollar strength.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
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Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
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Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:55 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Jun) | 64.4 | 64.9 | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Manufacturing PMI (Jun) | 64.2 | 64.2 | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 411K | 386K | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun) | 61.2 | 61.0 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 92.25. MACD which illustrate ongoing bullish momentum signal suggest the dollar to extend its gains towards the resistance level 92.70.
Resistance level: 92.70, 93.05
Support level: 92.25, 91.65
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.3785. MACD which illustrate ongoing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.3925, 1.4020
Support level: 1.3785, 1.3675
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.1845. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level 1.1845.
Resistance level: 1.1920, 1.1985
Support level: 1.1845, 1.1785
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 111.00. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 111.60.
Resistance level: 111.60, 112.20
Support level: 111.00, 110.30
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.7475. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level 0.7475.
Resistance level: 0.7545, 0.7595
Support level: 0.7475, 0.7395
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following recent breakout below the previous support level 0.7010. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to experience a short-term technical correction back towards the level 0.7010.
Resistance level: 0.7010, 0.7075
Support level: 0.6925, 0.6825
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1.2420. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to experience a technical correction towards the support level 1.2350.
Resistance level: 1.2420, 1.2505
Support level: 1.2350, 1.2275
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 0.9245. MACD illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains towards resistance level 0.9280.
Resistance level: 0.9280, 0.9320
Support level: 0.9245, 0.9195
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded in a sideway channel while currently testing near the resistance level 74.20. However, MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 74.20, 76.30
Support level: 72.40, 70.25
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1767.55. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1812.10.
Resistance level: 1812.10, 1856.00
Support level: 1767.55, 1725.50