1 October 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Euro plummets as data disappoints.
Euro extended losses to its lowest level since May 2017 following bearish economic data which were released on yesterday. According to Federal Statistics Office German, its CPI for the month of September came in at 0.0%, missing economist forecast for a rise of 0.1%. At the same time, the harmonized EU measure for inflation fell to a lower rate at only 0.9%, signalling further downside ahead as the single economic zone plunged further into recession. These bearish economic data open up more room for loose monetary policy setting from the European Central Bank after the announced their decision to cut interest rate deeper into the negative territory. However, euro managed to cap its losses after German Unemployment Change came in better than expected with -10,000 versus forecast for a rise of 5,000. On the other hand, US dollar continues to extend its bullish trend following optimistic developments with regards to US-China trade war. According to Bloomberg, US Treasury denied claims that the US is considering to restrict US investment in Chinese companies. The news dialled down tension in between both countries which were scheduled to reboot high-level trade talks next week in Washington. As of writing, pair of EUR/USD unchanged at 1.0898 while the dollar index was quoted up 0.28% to 98.98.
In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.11% to $54.28 per barrel. On yesterday, oil price plunged sharply after Saudi Arabia assured the market that its crude output remains constant at high levels, thus dialling down speculation for a shortage due to recent attacks to its oil facilities. On the other hand, gold price ticked down 0.02% to $1,472.82 a troy ounce due to stronger greenback.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day HKD Hong Kong – National Day
All Day CNY China – National Day
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
12:30 AUD RBA Rate Statement
00:45 (2nd) EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 12:30 | AUD – RBA Interest Rate Decision (Oct) | 1.00% | 0.75% | – |
| 15:55 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | 43.5 | 41.1 | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | 47.4 | 47.0 | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – CPI (YoY) (Sep) | 1.0% | 1.0% | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – GDP (MoM) (Jul) | 0.2% | 0.1% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | 49.1 | 50.4 | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Manufacturing Employment (Sep) | 47.4 | – | – |
| 04:30
(2nd) |
CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | 1.400M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing at the resistance of 99.00. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the index to extend its gains after closing above 99.00.
Resistance level: 99.00, 99.20
Support level: 98.65, 98.40
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support of 1.2260. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.2325, 1.2400
Support level: 1.2260, 1.2170
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the 20-MA line (red). MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses in mid-term, towards the direction of 1.0870.
Resistance level: 1.0930, 1.1010
Support level: 1.0870, 1.0800
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance of 108.10. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level:108.10, 108.45
Support level: 107.60, 107.05
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing at the support of 0.6745. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to advance further down after closing below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.6800, 0.6830
Support level: 0.6745, 0.6705
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing at the support of 0.6250. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.6290, 0.6320
Support level: 0.6250, 0.6220
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower levels. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.3255, 1.3280
Support level: 1.3220, 1.3190
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior closure above 0.9970. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further upwards in mid-term, towards the direction of 1.0010.
Resistance level: 1.0010, 1.0055
Support level: 0.9970, 0.9925
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests its price to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 54.45, 55.55
Support level: 53.00, 51.60
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests its price to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1483.50, 1494.50
Support level: 1471.50, 1446.00