2 April 2020 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar plunged following mixed economic data released.
Dollar index which gauge its value against a basket of six major currencies slumped after a series of mixed data released in US region last night. As a widely used indicator to scrutinize the health of labour market, ADP Non-farm payroll data was come in at -27k, recorded a deepest drop before the impact of Covid-19 flow through the economy as the report merely covered till 12th March. Since the outbreak of coronavirus, US economy has been affected tremendously and labour market has showed the largest slump by referring to the initial jobless claim data. Despite the ADP data was reported in a reading slightly stronger than the economist forecast at -150k, however it did not exerted bullish momentum toward the dollar index as market forecast the actual losses for the entire month of March were far worse as millions of people in US had filed the unemployment claims. Nonetheless, the losses of greenback limited following an upbeat data of manufacturing sector released. According to the Institute of Supply Management, ISM Manufacturing PMI recorded a drop lower than forecast whereas the actual reading is 49.1 and the forecast is 45.0. As of writing, dollar index inched down 0.05% to 99.50.
In the commodities market, crude oil price rose by 0.72% to $21.20 per barrel despite skyrocketed in crude oil inventories. According to EIA, US Crude Oil Inventories data rose significantly to 13.834M from previous month of reading at 1.623M. The overall oil market sentiment still remains weak due to the negative effect of coronavirus and dispute between Saudi Arabia and Russia. Besides, gold price appreciates 0.05% to $1591.95 a troy ounce amid weakening of dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | GBP – Construction PMI (Mar) | 52.6 | – | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 3283K | 3500K | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 99.75. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the dollar to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level at 99.75.
Resistance level: 99.75, 101.20
Support level: 98.30, 97.60
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded flat within the sideway channel. Due to lack of signal from MACD, it is suggested to wait for further confirmation such as breakout or rebound before entering into market.
Resistance level: 1.2470, 1.2605
Support level: 1.2340, 1.2230
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short term toward the support level at 1.0900.
Resistance level: 1.1000, 1.1040
Support level: 1.0900, 1.0835
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 107.55. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level at 107.55.
Resistance level: 107.55, 108.55
Support level: 106.50, 105.20
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.6035. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.6350.
Resistance level: 0.6350, 0.6720
Support level: 0.6035, 0.5720
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.5865. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound toward the resistance level at 0.6075.
Resistance level: 0.6075, 0.6250
Support level: 0.5865, 0.5620
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.4190. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level at 1.4190.
Resistance level: 1.4335, 1.4535
Support level: 1.4190, 1.3990
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the 20 moving average line (Red). MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.9680.
Resistance level: 0.9680, 0.9730
Support level: 0.9625, 0.9580.
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the higher level. However, MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum suggest the commodity to undergo technical correction toward higher level in short term.
Resistance level: 21.85, 23.15
Support level: 21.15, 20.10
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1579.00. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1602.55.
Resistance level: 1602.55, 1634.90
Support level: 1579.00, 1536.95