2 April 2021 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar wobbles during Good Friday’s holiday.
The dollar index which gauges its value against a basket of six major rival currencies failed to extend its rally while traded lower after hitting the 4 months high level amid downbeat job data ahead of Good Friday’s holiday. Last night, the number of Americans who filing for the unemployment insurance benefit rose above 700k again, triggering a wave of sell-off in US dollar market. According to the Labor department, US Initial Jobless Claims data came in at 719K, significantly higher than the economist forecast at 680K, shocking the market sentiment despite signs of labor market improvement after more US states gradually reopen their economy recently. A surprise hike in first time claims for jobless benefits slightly pull back the market optimism toward the US economic health while putting even higher uncertainty on today’s NFP data. Besides, the dollar index deepens its losses after a drop in US Treasury Yield. Yesterday, the yield on the benchmark of 10-year yield dropped 0.08% and stagnant below 1.7% in the first trading day of April. As of now, FX market are expected to have low liquidity and thin trading amid the holiday of Good Friday while investors are waiting for NFP report to be released in order to scrutinize the further direction of dollar index. During Asian early trading session, dollar index dropped 0.38% to 92.90.
In the commodities market, the crude oil price increased by 0.01% to $61.25 per barrel despite OPEC decided to gradually reduce their oil production cut starting from May onward. In the OPEC meeting, OPEC and its alliances will bring up the production by additional 350K bpd in May, with another 350K in June and 450K in July. Besides, Saudi Arabia will also gradually reduce its voluntarily cuts of 1 million bpd on top of the cutting amount of OPEC+ groups. Lastly, the gold prices increased by 0.01% to $1729.55 after dollar retreated from its high level.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day USD Good Friday
All Day GBP Good Friday
All Day EUR Good Friday
All Day AUD Good Friday
All Day CAD Good Friday
All Day NZD Good Friday
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | USD – Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar) | 379K | 647K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Unemployment Rate (Mar) | 6.2% | 6.0% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 93.00. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the index to extend its losses toward the support level at 92.60.
Resistance level: 93.00, 93.35
Support level: 92.60, 92.10
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.3805. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.3880.
Resistance level: 1.3880, 1.3990
Support level: 1.3805, 1.3755
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.1755. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.1830.
Resistance level: 1.1830, 1.1890
Support level: 1.1755, 1.1695
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 110.80. However, MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum signal suggest the pair to undergo technical correction in short term.
Resistance level: 110.80, 111.50
Support level: 110.25, 109.75
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.7600. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.7655.
Resistance level: 0.7655, 0.7700
Support level: 0.7600, 0.7565
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.7030. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.7030, 0.7105
Support level: 0.6945, 0.6900
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.2560. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.2485.
Resistance level: 1.2560, 1.2610
Support level: 1.2485, 1.2400
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower leve. However, MACD which illustrated bearish bias signal suggests the pair to undergo technical correction in short term.
Resistance level: 0.9430, 0.9480
Support level: 0.9370, 0.9310
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 60.65. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 61.70.
Resistance level: 61.70, 62.60
Support level: 60.65, 59.30
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1723.35. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum signal suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1738.95.
Resistance level: 1738.95, 1754.15
Support level: 1723.35, 1710.80