2 July 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Greenback remain stable, Aussie gains on rate cut.
Dollar index have slipped against its basket of six major currency pairs by 0.02% to 96.40 as of writing, however the momentum remain stable for the greenback as market continue to cheer on the positive truce between U.S and China. Despite weak manufacturing data was released by yesterday, market participant remain confident towards the greenback and both economic powerhouse could able to resolve the almost year-long trade dispute at the end. However, sentiment was kept in check by this month rate cut expectation where July rate cut was expected with the probability of 100%, according to the Fed Rate Monitor tool. Market will now anticipated for the upcoming release of employment data this week to gauge further momentum for the greenback. At the same time, AUD/USD holds steady and gains 0.22% to 0.6975 at the time of writing despite rate cut. According to RBA, interest rate have reduced to new record low of 1.00% as expected by the market. However, sentiment was mixed as RBA Governor Phillip Lowe stated that the cut was to “support employment growth” and was aimed to generate “greater confidence” in the Australia economy. Market participant will now shift their focus on the next data to determine further direction.
As for commodities market, crude oil price further its gains by 0.34% to $59.23 per barrel as of writing as market continue to cheered on the OPEC extension on supply cut. According to reports on Monday, OPEC have on Monday to extend oil supply cuts until March 2020 as the group’s members overcame their differences in order to prop up the price of crude following a weakening global economy and soaring U.S. production. On the other hand, gold price rebounds 0.39% to $1,390.00 a troy ounce at the time of writing as global uncertainty remain in grasp on risk appetite.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
22:05 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | GBP – Construction PMI (Jun) | 48.6 | 49.3 | – |
| 04:30
(3rd) |
CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | -7.550M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 96.35. However, MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest index undergo short-term technical correction and retrace towards the support level 95.50.
Resistance level: 96.35, 97.00
Support level: 95.50, 95.00
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below previous support level 1.2655. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.2610.
Resistance level: 1.2655, 1.2755
Support level: 1.2610, 1.2555
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1.1305. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.1240.
Resistance level: 1.1305, 1.1360
Support level: 1.1240, 1.1180
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 108.20. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to retrace towards the support level 108.20 as a short-term technical correction.
Resistance level: 108.70, 109.15
Support level: 108.20, 107.80
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the 20-MA line (green). MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to be traded higher after successfully closing above the 20-MA line (green).
Resistance level: 0.7000, 0.7055
Support level: 0.6970, 0.6930
NZUDSD, H4: NZDUSD was higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.6675. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.6675, 0.6720
Support level: 0.6635, 0.6580
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing near the 20-MA line (green). MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after breaking below the 20-MA line (green) and the support level 1.3110.
Resistance level: 1.3160, 1.3240
Support level: 1.3110, 1.3055
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.9860. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.9905, 0.9940
Support level: 0.9860, 0.9805
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 60.20. MACD which illustrate negative divergence suggest the commodity to extend its losses towards the support level 57.95.
Resistance level: 60.20, 61.80
Support level: 57.95, 55.85
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1386.35. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest gold to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1406.50.
Resistance level: 1406.50, 1421.40
Support level: 1386.35, 1370.00