2 August 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar sags following Trump latest tweet.
Dollar index plummets against a basket of six major currency pairs following U.S President Donald Trump’s tweet on trade war driving sellers back to the market. According to reports, U.S President Donald Trump tweeted in his Twitter on Thursday that U.S is imposing another 10% tariff on another $300 billion worth of Chinese goods starting 1st September. As both economic powerhouses just wrapped up a round of trade talk this week, the news has escalated tension between U.S and China following failures to reach a trade truce. At the same time, U.S manufacturing sector expanded in July at its slowest pace in almost three years, with the reading of 51.2, lower than market expectation of 52.00, according to the Institute for Supply Management’s purchasing manager index (PMI). The data have since added further pressure for the greenback. Investors are now focused on today closely-watched jobs report to gauge further momentum. On the other hand, pound sterling continue to drive lower after BoE event. BoE have maintained its rate unchanged at 0.75% on Thursday. However, it has downsized and reduced its growth forecast and delivered a rather dovish note, stating that underlying growth has slowed below its potential rate. At the same time, no-deal Brexit fear continue weigh on the pound, thus limiting the potential rebound for the pound sterling. Dollar index fell 0.09% to 98.04 while GBP/USD also slips 0.07% to 1.2117 at the time of writing.
As for commodities, crude oil price plunged 0.20% to $54.11 per barrel at the time of writing despite declining supply. According to reports from Bloomberg, Libya’s oil production fell to a five-month low of 950,000 bpd. The sudden drop was due another “valve closure halting crude oil supply” from the Sharara oil field to the port. However, the positive data was unable to lift up market spirit following the negative developments of trade talk which could hugely affect the demand of the commodity, thus disappoint market investors and causing a major sell-off. Next, gold price skyrocketed 0.20% to $1441.95 a troy ounce as of writing following a weaker dollar due to trade war concerns.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16.30 | GBP – Construction PMI (Jul) | 43.1 | 46.0 | – |
| 20.30 | USD – Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jul) | 0.2% | 0.2% | – |
| 20.30 | USD – Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul) | 224K | 164K | – |
| 20.30 | USD – Unemployment Rate (Jul) | 3.7% | 3.7% | – |
| 22.00 | USD – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jul) | 90.1 | 90.3 | – |
| 01:00 (3rd) | CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 776 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing near its 20-MA line (green). MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest index to extend its losses after successfully closing below the 20-MA line.
Resistance level: 98.20, 98.60
Support level: 97.55, 97.00
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1.2125. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.2045.
Resistance level: 1.2125, 1.2220
Support level: 1.2045, 1.2000
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing its 20-MA line (green). MACD which illustrate diminished bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully closing above the 20-MA line.
Resistance level: 1.1120, 1.1185
Support level: 1.1075, 1.1020
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout below previous support level 107.25. MACD which display ongoing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 106.80.
Resistance level: 107.25, 107.60
Support level: 106.80, 106.05
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 0.6790. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.6825, 0.6860
Support level: 0.6790, 0.6760
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 0.6540. However, MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction and rebound towards the resistance level 0.6580.
Resistance level: 0.6580, 0.6635
Support level: 0.6540, 0.6500
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.3240. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.3160.
Resistance level: 1.3240, 1.3305
Support level: 1.3160, 1.3090
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior breakout below previous support level 0.9905. MACD which illustrate ongoing bearish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.9860.
Resistance level: 0.9905, 0.9940
Support level: 0.9860, 0.9805
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price traded lower while currently testing its support level at 54.60. MACD which display bearish bias signal suggest the commodity to extend its losses after successfully closing below the support level.
Resistance level: 56.30, 57.95
Support level: 54.60, 52.65
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1435.90. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest gold to extend its retracement after successfully closing below the support level.
Resistance level: 1453.75, 1477.00
Support level: 1435.90, 1421.40