3 March 2021 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar retreats as US treasury yield slips.
The dollar index which gauges its value against a basket of six major currencies failed to extend its rally yesterday as the fall in US 10-year treasury yield dragged down the appeal of US dollar. The benchmark U.S. Treasury yields eased after hitting the one-year high as bond market recovered from its sell-off last week. Prior to now, dollar surged against its rival currencies as long-term treasury yield jumps to a high level more than a year amid hawkish expectation from the investors toward the economic future outlook. Despite that the US central bank being very accommodative with stimulus and emphasized that they will maintain their interest rate at low level for an extended period of time, but investors are getting optimistic that the ongoing vaccination program will likely sweep off the fallout of pandemic in global economy. As of now, market participants are concern about the upcoming voting session of US stimulus package in the second chamber of House – Senate in order to gauges the further direction of US dollar. As of writing, dollar index ebbed down 0.25% to 90.80.
In the commodities market, the crude oil price depreciated by 0.17% to $59.30 per barrel as following surprise pile up in US oil inventories. According to the API, US Weekly Crude Oil Stock rose by 7.356M, missing the economist forecast at -1.850M, raising the market concern over the supply glut might exacerbating the imbalance in oil market. Besides, the gold price rose 0.13% to $1740.00 a troy ounce amid weakening of US dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
20:30 GBP Annual Budget Release
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 17:00 | GBP – Composite PMI (Feb) | 41.2 | 49.8 | – |
| 17:00 | GBP – Services PMI (Feb) | 39.5 | 49.7 | – |
| 21:15 | USD – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Feb) | 174K | 177K | – |
| 23:00 | USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Feb) | 58.7 | 58.7 | – |
| 23:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | 1.285M | -0.928M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 90.90. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the index to extend its losses toward the support level at 90.45.
Resistance level: 90.90, 91.55
Support level: 90.45, 90.00
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.3945. MACD which illustrated bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.4000.
Resistance level: 1.4000, 1.4085
Support level: 1.3945, 1.3845
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.2065. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.2105.
Resistance level: 1.2105, 1.2165
Support level: 1.2065, 1.2025
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 106.75. MACD which illustrated bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to undergo technical correction in short term.
Resistance level: 106.75, 107.10
Support level: 106.45, 106.10
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.7815. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.7850.
Resistance level: 0.7850, 0.7890
Support level: 0.7815, 0.7775
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.7290. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.7290, 0.7335
Support level: 0.7225, 0.7165
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.2610. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.2685.
Resistance level: 1.2685, 1.2770
Support level: 1.2610, 1.2555
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.9180. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.9125.
Resistance level: 0.9180, 0.9225
Support level: 0.9125, 0.9090
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 59.80. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 58.70.
Resistance level: 59.80, 60.65
Support level: 58.70, 57.80
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1738.10. MACD which illustrated bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level at 1738.10.
Resistance level: 1738.10, 1765.20
Support level: 1716.70, 1698.30