03 July 2020 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar soars following unexpected job growth appeared.
Dollar index which gauges its value against a basket of six major currencies surged after US released a series of positive bias job data yesterday. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, US NonFarm Payroll data came in at 4,800K, blowing the estimation of economist at 3,000K, showing that the US labour market has entered into strong recovery phase after US lifted the movement restriction. Besides, the unemployment data which also acts as the important indicator of measuring the current labour market condition has been reduced from 13.3% to 11.1%, while lower than the economist forecast at 12.3% as well. Nonetheless, most experts disagreed that the NFP data and unemployment rate are reflecting the exact situation of US labour market now as the data are not designed for a pandemic induced recession. Besides, there is a flare-up of virus cases can be seen in the every state of US country late June and urged the states’ governor to re-implement lockdown measure in order to limit the negative effect of this fast-spreading virus. During Asian early trading session, dollar index rose 0.02% to 97.20.
In the commodities market, crude oil price inched down 0.86% to $40.30 as the market still remains cautious while awaits for more catalyst. In the past few days, US recorded surprise drop in its crude oil inventory level and lifted up the appeal of this black commodity product. However, the gains of crude oil were limited by the situation of virus’s pandemic heightened. Besides, gold price rose 0.05% to $1776.30 a troy ounce as market worries over the pandemic exacerbated.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day USD Independence Day
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | GBP – Composite PMI (Jun) | 47.6 | 47.6 | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Services PMI (Jun) | 47.0 | 47.0 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the bottom level of upward channel. MACD which diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 97.55.
Resistance level: 97.55, 98.75
Support level: 96.90, 96.10
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.2525. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.2435.
Resistance level: 1.2525, 1.2625
Support level: 1.2435, 1.2335
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.1245. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.1165.
Resistance level: 1.1245, 1.1320
Support level: 1.1165, 1.1095
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound near the support level at 107.45. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 107.90.
Resistance level: 107.90, 108.35
Support level: 107.45, 106.80
AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.6810. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.7115.
Resistance level: 0.7115, 0.7295
Support level: 0.6810, 0.6500
NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.6480. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.6580.
Resistance level: 0.6580, 0.6755
Support level: 0.6480, 0.6380
USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.3675. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.3500.
Resistance level: 1.3675, 1.3865
Support level: 1.3500, 1.3355
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.9425. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.9475.
Resistance level: 0.9475, 0.9535
Support level: 0.9430, 0.9380
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 39.15. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to undergo short term technical correction toward the lower level.
Resistance level: 41.35, 43.75
Support level: 39.15, 37.45
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1778.00. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1778.00, 1788.05
Support level: 1765.75, 1757.85