3 October 2019 Morning Session Analysis
ADP data disappoints, will NFP saves US dollar?
Greenback extended its losses on Wednesday after private sector employment data shows slower pace of hiring for last month. According to ADP, its Nonfarm Employment Change data came in at 135,000 for the month of September, slightly below economists’ forecast of 140,000. The latest data is significantly lower than August’s reading of 157,000, a reading which saw a sharp downward revision from initially reported 195,000. Latest data from ADP spurred concerns in the market amid growing signs of diminishing economic momentum which may encourage Federal Reserve to adopt more monetary policy easing in the future. For the time being, investors will wait for the release of Nonfarm Payrolls report in order to attain more market signals. In the other region, pound sterling managed to rebound from its lower levels following progress in Brexit negotiation between UK and EU. Prior, EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said that more progress is being made on Brexit but warned that “a lot of work remains to be resolved”. More meetings will be conducted in between UK and EU for the next few days which may provide more signals to the market. As of writing, the dollar index was down 0.11% to 98.64 while pair of GBP/USD ticked up 0.01% to 1.2298.
In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.13% to $52.55 per barrel. On yesterday, oil price slumped further while hitting its lowest level in 2 months after EIA reported an increase in US oil inventories. On the other hand, gold price ticked up 0.01% to $1,500.51 a troy ounce due to weaker greenback.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day CNY China – National Day
All Day EUR German – Unification Day
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | GBP – Composite PMI (Sep) | 50.2 | – | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Services PMI (Sep) | 50.6 | 50.3 | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 213K | 215K | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | 56.4 | 55.0 | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Sep) | 53.1 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior close below 98.65. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the index to extend its losses, towards the direction of 98.40.
Resistance level: 98.65, 99.00
Support level: 98.40, 98.30
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from 1.2325. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.2325, 1.2400
Support level: 1.2260, 1.2170
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from its lower levels. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up after closing above the 60-MA line (green).
Resistance level: 1.1010, 1.1070
Support level: 1.0930, 1.0870
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing at the support of 107.05. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the support of 107.05.
Resistance level: 107.60, 108.10
Support level: 107.05, 106.55
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing at the resistance of 0.6705. MACD which begins to form a bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above 0.6705.
Resistance level: 0.6705, 0.6745
Support level: 0.6670, 0.6600
NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior closure below 0.6300. MACD which begins to form a bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses in the mid-term.
Resistance level: 0.6300, 0.6435
Support level: 0.6035, 0.5790
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior breakout from the narrowing triangle. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 1.3340.
Resistance level: 1.3340, 1.3375
Support level: 1.3315, 1.3280
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance of 1.0010. MACD which begins to form a bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 0.9970, 1.0010
Support level: 0.9925, 0.9865
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded flat near the resistance of 53.00. However, MACD which shows diminished downward momentum suggests its price to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 53.00, 54.45
Support level: 51.60, 50.55
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing at the 60-MA line (green). MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its price to extend its gains after closing above the MA line.
Resistance level: 1511.00, 1532.40
Support level: 1484.05, 1460.00