4 May 2020 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar seesawed amid market mixed sentiment.
Dollar index which gauge its value against a basket of six major currencies was traded up and down, having a mixed pattern before entering into weekend amid recent economic data painted a mixed picture over the health of economy. Late last week, dollar index received huge sell off pressure after US recorded another week of high unemployment benefit filing which shown by the Initial Jobless Claims data. In details, US labour market remained weak amid fallout of Covid-19 continues haunting the entire nation economy performance, prompting near to 4 million of US citizen to claim unemployment insurance during last week. Besides, senior official of Federal Reserve also revealed that the unemployment rate of US may shoot up to 20% in a short time frame while the GDP may also contracts near 30% in this year. These dovish statements and a series of bleak economic data given a shade to dollar, less likely to escape from risk from weakening at the moment. However, the losses of dollar were limited following the release of upbeat economic data from manufacturing sector. According to Institute of Supply Management, its Manufacturing PMI data came in at 41.5, blowing the estimates of economist at 36.9, hinting amplitude of economy slump in US is lighter and softer than the market believes. As of writing, dollar index up 0.14% to 99.20.
In the commodities market, crude oil price depreciates 5.43% to $18.65 per barrel despite OPEC and its allies have begun their oil cut starting from this week to tackle the supply glut which due to the crisis of Coronavirus. As of now, markets are still concerned over the spread of virus and the progress of drug on curing the virus to gauge the prospect of this black commodity market. Besides, gold price down by 0.33% to $1694.75 a troy ounce due to strengthening of dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day JPY Greenery Day
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:55 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Apr) | 45.4 | 34.4 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 99.75. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 98.30.
Resistance level: 99.75, 100.85
Support level: 98.30, 97.60
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.2520. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to be traded lower toward the support level at 1.2435.
Resistance level: 1.2520, 1.2620
Support level: 1.2435, 1.2370
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement near the resistance level at 1.1025. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.0940.
Resistance level: 1.1025, 1.1115
Support level: 1.0940, 1.0830
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 107.20. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 106.25.
Resistance level: 107.20, 108.20
Support level: 106.25, 104.50
AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.6460. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6180.
Resistance level: 0.6460, 0.6705
Support level: 0.6780, 0.5975
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.6055. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.5995.
Resistance level: 0.6055, 0.6120
Support level: 0.5995, 0.5945
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.4120. MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.4120, 1.4240
Support level: 1.3980, 1.3855
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from near the support level at 0.9585. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound toward the resistance level at 0.9660.
Resistance level: 0.9660, 0.9710
Support level: 0.9585, 0.9510
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 18.05.
Resistance level: 21.80, 25.85
Support level: 18.05, 15.70
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1699.75. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the commodity to be traded lower toward the support level at 1683.50.
Resistance level: 1699.75, 1711.25
Support level: 1683.50, 1666.25