4 July 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Dollar slumped lower as weakness persist, AUD gains.
Dollar index which measuring against a basket of six major currency pairs have fell 0.10% to 96.18 at the time of writing as greenback sellers remain dominant on the greenback weakness. Recent weak data where ADP shows lower-than-expected jobs generation in the private sector continues to fuel the sell-off upon US dollar. Besides that, falling Treasury yields boosted expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut their interest rates later this month for the first time in a decade where as it inches towards the lowest level in more than 2-1/2 years. Market participants will now focus upon U.S non-farm payrolls for further signals with regards to the direction of the greenback. Meanwhile, AUD/USD gains 0.21% to 0.7040 as of writing despite downbeat retail sales data. According to Australian Bureau of Statistic, retail sales in Australia have slipped 0.1% which missed market expectation with the reading of 0.2%. However, bullish bets upon the Aussie dollar remain resilient after recent report shows that the Australian government is close to secure a major tax cut plan which may further support their economy.
As for commodities market, crude oil price fell 0.82% to $56.81 per barrel due to weak oil stockpile data. According to Energy Information Association, U.S crude oil stockpiles dropped 1.1 million barrels last week, which is lesser than expected for a decrease of 3 million barrels. The data indicates that the oil market remains oversupplied despite recent extension on production cut by OPEC and its allies. On the other hand, gold price inched higher 0.13% to $1420.51 a troy ounce due to depreciation in treasury yields which places pressure upon the greenback.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day USD Independence Day
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 17:00 | EUR – Retail Sales (MoM) (May) | -0.4% | 0.4% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded flat while currently testing the resistance level 96.35. However, MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest index to undergo short-term technical correction and retrace towards the support level 95.50.
Resistance level: 96.35, 97.00
Support level: 95.50, 95.00
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 1.2555. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.2610.
Resistance level: 1.2610, 1.2655
Support level: 1.2555, 1.2490
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD remained traded in a sideway channel while currently testing near the bottom-level of the channel. However, MACD which display starting bullish momentum with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to rebound towards the resistance level 1.1305.
Resistance level: 1.1305, 1.1360
Support level: 1.1240, 1.1180
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 107.80. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 107.80, 108.20
Support level: 107.35, 106.80
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level at 0.7000. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.7055.
Resistance level: 0.7055, 0.7115
Support level: 0.7000, 0.6970
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.6720. However, MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction and retrace towards the support level of 0.6675.
Resistance level: 0.6720, 0.6770
Support level: 0.6675, 0.6635
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level of 1.3055. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to rebound towards the resistance level 1.3110 as a short-term technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.3110, 1.3160
Support level: 1.3055, 1.2985
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded flat while currently testing the support level 0.9860. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.9905, 0.9940
Support level: 0.9860, 0.9805
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the 60-MA line (red). MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses towards the support level 55.85.
Resistance level: 57.95, 60.20
Support level: 55.85, 54.60
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1421.40. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest gold to extend its retracement towards the support level 1405.00
Resistance level: 1421.40, 1440.00
Support level: 1405.00, 1386.35