4 October 2019 Morning Session Analysis
US Dollar slumps further, recession right up ahead?
US dollar slumped further on Thursday evening following bearish economic data from the region which spurs higher concerns over possible economic recession. According to Institute for Supply Management (ISM), its Non-Manufacturing PMI for the month of September depreciates from 56.4 to 52.6, at the same time missing forecast of 55.0. As non-manufacturing sector such as services largely contribute to US economy at around 70% of its Gross Domestic Product, a slump in its PMI has spurred higher concerns that Federal Reserve may cut its interest rates further in the future. Likewise, sentiment towards the greenback remains bleak after its recent Initial Jobless Claims data shows higher jobless count at 219,000 individuals, slightly higher than forecast of 215,000 individuals. On the other hand, pound sterling received tremendous selloff pressure on yesterday after EU rejected Brexit draft proposed by the UK. According to Chief EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier, he commented that some clause in the draft which includes Ireland border controls are irrelevant and he gives UK PM Boris Johnson a week to resubmit a new Brexit draft. As of writing, the dollar index was down 0.13% to 98.58 while pair of GBP/USD appreciates by 0.09% to 1.2338.
In the commodities market, crude oil price recoup its losses by 0.13% to $52.36 per barrel. However, gains on the oil prices remains limited as ongoing trade war in between US and China may lead to global economic recession that could reduce oil demand in the long-run. On the other hand, gold price rose 0.16% to $1,507.43 a troy ounce due to higher risk aversion in the market.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day CNY China – National Day
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | USD – Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep) | 130K | 140K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Sep) | 0.4% | 0.3% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Unemployment Rate (Sep) | 3.7% | 3.7% | – |
| 22:00 | CAD – Ivey PMI (Sep) | 60.6 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior closure below 98.65. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the index to be traded lower in short-term.
Resistance level: 98.65, 99.00
Support level: 98.40, 98.30
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from 1.2400. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower after closing below 1.2325.
Resistance level: 1.2400, 1.2515
Support level: 1.2325, 1.2260
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior close above 1.0965. MACD which continues to illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.1010, 1.1070
Support level: 1.0965, 1.0930
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support of 106.55. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to experience short-term technical correction.
Resistance level: 107.05, 107.60
Support level: 106.55, 106.15
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance of 0.6745. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above 0.6745.
Resistance level: 0.6745, 0.6800
Support level: 0.6705, 0.6670
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which continues to illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above 0.6310.
Resistance level: 0.6310, 0.6360
Support level: 0.6250, 0.6215
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded flat near the resistance of 1.3340. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.3335, 1.3375
Support level: 1.3315, 1.3280
USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from its lower level. MACD which begins to form a bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains in mid-term.
Resistance level: 1.0010, 1.0105
Support level: 0.9970, 0.9925
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its price to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 53.00, 54.45
Support level: 51.60, 50.55
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing near 1511.00. MACD which illustrate bullish bias suggests its price to extend its gains after breaking 1511.00 resistance level.
Resistance level: 1511.00, 1532.40
Support level: 1484.05, 1460.00