5 January 2022 Morning Session Analysis
Greenback rebounds, but for how long?
Greenback continues to trade within a tight range as investors tries to grasp more market signals with regards to US economy. Yesterday, US dollar stages a rebound from lower levels over the backdrop of optimistic speculation upon Federal Reserve. CME Fed Rate Monitor Tool shows that investors are currently speculating a 60% chance for a 25-basis point interest rate hike from Federal Reserve in March 2022. The expectation was made as investors expects US economy to recover further in the near-term although Omicron variant spreads rapidly across the US. However, current upside on the US dollar were limited following the release of bearish economic data from yesterday night. For the month of December, ISM Manufacturing PMI slumped down to 58.7, significantly lower than forecast of 60.0. Depreciation in manufacturing activity was contributed by shortage of workforce and difficulty to obtain raw materials. As of writing, the dollar index was up by 0.01% to 96.21.
For commodities, crude oil price was up 0.15% to $77.07 per barrel. Oil price rebounds from lower level after OPEC continues its monthly supply increase by 400,000 barrels per day. On the other hand, gold price slumped by 0.09% to $1,813.32 a troy ounce due to stronger greenback.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 21:15 | USD – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Dec) | 534K | 390K | – |
| 23:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | -3.576M | -2.800M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retrace from higher levels. MACD which diminished bullish momentum suggests the index to be traded lower in short-term.
Resistance level: 96.35, 96.60
Support level: 96.10, 95.85
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from higher level. MACD which illustrate diminished bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term.
Resistance level: 1.3570, 1.3630
Support level: 1.3510, 1.3470
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from higher level. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term.
Resistance level: 1.1285, 1.1320
Support level: 1.1250, 1.1210
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from lower levels. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher after breaking its resistance level.
Resistance level: 116.25, 117.00
Support level: 115.40, 114.55
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following rebound from lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher short-term.
Resistance level: 0.7280, 0.7320
Support level: 0.7225, 0.7180
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from lower levels. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term.
Resistance level: 0.6830, 0.6870
Support level: 0.6780, 0.6740
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from 1.2765. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term.
Resistance level: 1.2765, 1.2835
Support level: 1.2690, 1.2620
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from higher level. MACD which illustrate diminished bullish momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term.
Resistance level: 0.9165, 0.9190
Support level: 0.9130, 0.9100
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from lower levels. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its price to be traded higher after breaking its resistance level.
Resistance level: 77.35, 80.15
Support level: 75.15, 72.90
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from lower levels. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its price to be traded higher in short-term.
Resistance level: 1830.20, 1850.00
Support level: 1812.80, 1797.60