05 February 2020 Morning Session Analysis
Australia’s interest rate remain unchanged.
Among all the major currencies, Aussie dollars managed to gain bullish momentum on yesterday following Australia central bank decided to leave its monetary policy unchanged, no hint of imminent rate cut at the moment. In the RBA rate statement, board members of RBA keep their interest rate at 0.75% as widely expected while turned their tone to optimistic view toward the future growth outlook in Australia’s economy. At this point, the central bank is forecasting that the Australian economy to grow by 2.75% this year and 3% in the subsequent year. However, it is foreseeable that the outbreak of new coronavirus and bushfires will temporarily weigh on the domestic growth. Anyhow, RBA did not rule out the possibility of further rate cut or further ease their monetary policy if the economic growth goes aversely against their expectation. As of writing, the pair of AUD/USD rose by 0.01% to 0.6740. On the other hand, the pair of GBP/USD managed to recover part of its previous losses after falling to the lowest level in one month. At this moment, pound sterling market lifted up marginally by the positive economic data following huge sell off pressure which exerted by obstinate stance from UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson toward the issue of Brexit. According to CIPS, UK Construction PMI was came in at 48.4, stronger than economist forecast of 46.6 while recording the highest level in eight months. During early Asian trading session, GBP/USD inched up 0.02% to 1.3030.
In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.38% to $49.80 per barrel after hitting the lowest level since 9th January 2019. Prior to now, sell-off pressure on crude oil market spiked up after API data showed a large amount of stockpile in US crude oil inventories. According to API, US weekly crude oil stock was came in at 4.180M, unexpectedly higher than economist forecast of -4.270M. Besides, gold price notched up 0.23% to $1555.70 a troy ounce amid rising of risk-off sentiment around the global market.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
20:15 EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 17:30 | GBP – Composite PMI (Jan) | 52.4 | 52.4 | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – Services PMI (Jan) | 52.9 | 52.9 | – |
| 21:15 | USD – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jan) | 202K | 159K | – |
| 23:00 | USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jan) | 55.0 | 55.1 | – |
| 23:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | 3.548M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 97.70. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 98.20
Resistance level: 98.20, 98.80
Support level: 97.70, 97.25
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.3035. However, MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to undergo technical correction in short term toward the resistance level at 1.3035.
Resistance level: 1.3035, 1.3100
Support level: 1.2965, 1.2895
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.1035. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggests the pair to extend its gains towards the direction of 1.1075.
Resistance level: 1.1075, 1.1110
Support level: 1.1035, 1.1000
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short term toward the support level at 109.25.
Resistance level: 109.65, 110.20
Support level: 109.25, 108.80
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggests the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6705.
Resistance level: 0.6760, 0.6805
Support level: 0.6705, 0.6665
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.6495. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6455.
Resistance level: 0.6495, 0.6535
Support level: 0.6455, 0.6430
USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.3265. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.3335, 1.3395
Support level: 1.3265, 1.3210
USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.9690. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level at 0.9690.
Resistance level: 0.9690, 0.9735
Support level: 0.9665, 0.9635
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 50.05. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests this commodity to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level at 50.05.
Resistance level: 50.05, 51.55
Support level: 48.80, 47.35
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1551.10. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggests its price to be traded higher toward the next resistance level.
Resistance level: 1564.15, 1571.35
Support level: 1551.10, 1544.90