5 March 2020 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar ‘awake’ amid upbeat economic data.
Dollar index which gauge its value against a basket of six major currencies managed to rebound after hitting the lowest level in two months following the release of unexpected positive data. According to ADP, the private payrolls in US increased by 183K, blowing the estimation of economist at 170k while showing that the recent outbreak of Coronavirus in US region had not much of affection against its labor market. Besides, the non-manufacturing data in US also came in at an optimistic reading at 57.3, where slightly higher than the economist of 54.9. Despite the fast spread of Coronavirus is threatening the US economy growth, but the recent economic data still shows a positive sign while indicating the economy is remain resilient and intact. Nonetheless, investor will still continue to eye on the upcoming release of economic data in order to scrutinize the direction of greenback as it is seemingly that the negative impact has not shown up in the data yet. As of writing, dollar index rose by 0.23% to 97.35. On the other hand, the pair of USD/CAD inched up 0.01% to 1.3385 following Bank of Canada revised down its cash rates to 1.25% in response to diminish the negative impact of Coronavirus. In the monetary policy statement, BoC emphasized that the outbreak of COVID-19 caused the business activity fallen sharply and supply chains have also been disrupted. Therefore, a deep rate will be implemented in order to accommodate the current economy situation, while not ruling out the possibility of further loosening their monetary policy in the future.
In commodities market, crude oil prices rose by 0.06% to $47.15 per barrel as market participants are expecting OPEC and its allies to agree on a deeper round of production cuts as a result of two days meeting in Vienna. At the same time, a decrease of stockpile which shown in EIA crude oil inventories data also further support the crude oil price. According to the EIA, crude oil supplies rose by 0.785M, lower than the economist forecast of 2.644M. Besides, gold prices dropped 0.03% to $1636.60 a troy ounce amid strengthening of dollar index.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
18:00 CrudeOIL OPEC Meeting
01:00 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
(6th)
01:45 CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks
(6th)
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 21:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 219K | 215K | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 97.45. However, MACD which shows increasing bullish momentum suggests the index to experience technical correction in short-term.
Resistance level: 97.45, 97.90
Support level: 96.80, 96.55
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.2870. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level at 1.2870.
Resistance level: 1.2870, 1.2905
Support level: 1.2830, 1.2785
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the bottom level of sideway channel. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher toward the top level of channel.
Resistance level: 1.1180, 1.1215
Support level: 1.1110, 1.1075
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which shows bullish bias momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 107.90.
Resistance level: 107.90, 108.65
Support level: 106.70, 105.85
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.6620. MACD which illustrate diminished bearish momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the next resistance level at 0.6650.
Resistance level: 0.6650, 0.6680
Support level: 0.6620, 0.6580
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level. However, MACD which illustrate diminished bullish momentum suggests the pair to experience brief technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.6315, 0.6355
Support level: 0.6255, 0.6205
USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.3335. However, MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to undergo short term technical correction toward the support level at 1.3335.
Resistance level: 1.3435, 1.3490
Support level: 1.3335, 1.3265
USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from lower level. MACD which illustrate diminished bearish momentum suggests the pair to extend its rebound toward the resistance level at 0.9585.
Resistance level: 0.9585, 0.9625
Support level: 0.9520, 0.9450
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 48.10. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its price to be traded lower toward the support level at 46.60.
Resistance level: 48.10, 49.30
Support level: 46.60, 45.35
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1635.20. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to undergo short term technical correction toward the resistance level at 1654.50.
Resistance level: 1654.50, 1671.60
Support level: 1635.20, 1625.95