5 May 2021 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar spiked after Yellen pushed for rate hike.
The dollar index which gauges its value against a basket of six major currencies regained its bullish momentum while testing the recent high level near 91.25 following US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen sent a hawkish signal to the dollar market. Yesterday, Yellen revealed that interest rate may have to rise in order to keep the lid of economy growth while avoiding the risk of overheating happens. Her comment was derived from the view toward the potential risk that the implementation of stimulus spending and package which costs up to trillion of dollars might undermine the recovery of US economy. As of now, Federal Reserve (Fed) is still keeping its interest rate anchored near zero since a year ago, despite the US economy is now growing at its fastest pace in 40 years. Besides, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has reiterated at the FOMC meeting that they will keep accommodative policy in place until a “substantial further progress” in the recovery of economy could be seen while aiming full employment and 2% inflation rate at sustainable pace. As the hawkish comment from Yellen contradicts to the view of Jerome Powell, the dollar market sentiment turns scented as it raise the expectation of rate hike in the next Fed interest rate decision. During Asian early trading session, the dollar index rose by 0.01% to 91.25.
In the commodities market, crude oil price rose by 0.19% to $66.25 per barrel amid the surprise draw in crude oil inventory level. According to the API, US Crude Oil Inventory data came in at -7.7M, marking a larger drop compared to the economist forecast at 4.319M, market worries over the imbalance of oil market eased. Besides, the gold prices depreciated by 0.02% to $1778.50 per troy ounce amid the Yellen positive comment dragged down the appeal of safe-haven asset.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:15 | USD – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Apr) | 517K | 815K | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Apr) | 63.7 | 64.3 | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | 0.090M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 91.25. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the index to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 91.25, 91.60
Support level: 90.95, 90.70
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.3880. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.3925.
Resistance level: 1.3925, 1.4005
Support level: 1.3880, 1.3840
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.2065. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.1990.
Resistance level: 1.2065, 1.2135
Support level: 1.1990, 1.1915
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 109.20. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 109.20, 110.05
Support level: 108.30, 107.65
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.7700. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.7760.
Resistance level: 0.7760, 0.7805
Support level: 0.7700, 0.7665
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.7150. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum signal suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.7195.
Resistance level: 0.7195, 0.7225
Support level: 0.7150, 0.7110
USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level at 1.2255. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to undergo technical correction in short term.
Resistance level: 1.2390, 1.2510
Support level: 1.2255, 1.2105
USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.9110. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.9185.
Resistance level: 0.9185, 0.9220
Support level: 0.9110, 0.9030
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 66.25. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 66.25, 67.60
Support level: 64.25, 62.20
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. However, MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum signal suggest the commodity to undergo technical correction in short term.
Resistance level: 1787.05, 1794.65
Support level: 1766.25, 1755.60