5 July 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Slow market ahead of jobs data, Brexit remains an issue.
Dollar index measuring against a basket of six major currency pairs was inching lower by 0.01% near 96.30 while market participants are waiting for the release of jobs and wages data from the US to obtained further signal in the market. The release of today’s data is expected to bring large impact as US Federal Reserve (Fed) is most likely to refer the data readings to decide on their future monetary policy stance. As the Fed is already highly expected to cut rate by 25 basis point later this month, a dovish reading from the data might cause the Fed to signal more rate cut by the end of this year. Besides that, unresolved trade tensions further apply pressure to global market despite the two economic powerhouses agreed to put additional tariffs on hold while resuming negotiations. In other news, the pound sterling remained pressured by ongoing Brexit tensions while pair of GBP/USD was traded higher by 0.06% to 1.2580. Recent reports showed that front-runner for UK’s new Prime Minister Boris Johnson stated that delivering Brexit will be his top priority as failure to deliver would result in the nation splitting apart. However, Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond warned that a no deal Brexit will put the union and their economy at risk. Johnson emphasized that the union will come first but failure to deliver Brexit by 31st October will be the most prejudicial to the union. According to the statement, although Brexit is highly expected to be delivered by the stated date, a higher risk of no-deal Brexit continues to haunt the market sentiment.
In the commodities market, crude oil price fell by 0.14% to $56.67 per barrel while investors wait for further sentiment from the market before placing their bets on the commodity. On the other hand, gold price was falling by 0.15% to $1,418.30 a troy ounce as investors are holding on to their investments amid cloudy signals in the market.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | USD – Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jun) | 0.2% | 0.3% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun) | 75K | 160K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Unemployment Rate (Jun) | 3.6% | 3.6% | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Employment Change (Jun) | 27.7K | 10.0K | – |
| 22:00 | CAD – Ivey PMI (Jun) | 55.9 | 55.0 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded flat while currently testing the resistance level 96.35. However, MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest index to be traded lower towards the support level 95.50.
Resistance level: 96.35, 97.00
Support level: 95.50, 95.00
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded flat near below the resistance level 1.2595. However, MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to be traded higher towards the resistance level 1.2610.
Resistance level: 1.2610, 1.2655
Support level: 1.2515, 1.2440
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded flat while currently testing the support level. However, MACD which display bullish momentum with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to rebound towards the resistance level 1.1305.
Resistance level: 1.1335, 1.1395
Support level: 1.1280, 1.1235
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 107.60. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 108.15.
Resistance level: 108.15, 108.70
Support level: 107.60, 107.05
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.7035. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the starting formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.7000.
Resistance level: 0.7055, 0.7115
Support level: 0.7000, 0.6970
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 0.6675. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level 0.6675.
Resistance level: 0.6720, 0.6770
Support level: 0.6675, 0.6640
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1.3080. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to experience a short term technical correction towards the current resistance level 1.3080.
Resistance level: 1.3080, 1.3160
Support level: 1.2970, 1.2895
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 0.9855. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.9800.
Resistance level: 0.9855, 0.9910
Support level: 0.9800, 0.9750
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price remain traded in a sideway channel following recent retracement from the resistance level 57.55. Due to lack of momentum and clear direction from MACD, it is suggested to wait until further signal appear such as breakout above the resistance level or below the support level before entering the market.
Resistance level: 57.55, 59.60
Support level: 56.00, 54.50
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1421.40. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest gold to extend its retracement towards the support level 1403.15.
Resistance level: 1421.40, 1437.95
Support level: 1403.15, 1386.35