05 September 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Dollar stumble as global tensions ease, Aussie appreciates.
Dollar index stumble yesterday after global political worries eased with what market perceived as positive news in Hong Kong, Italy and Britain. Especially in Hong Kong, risk appetite rose on news that Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam was withdrawing an extradition bill that triggered months of often violent protests. With addition, New York Federal Reserve President John Williams’s claims that the U.S. economy is weaker than previously expected and the central bank have to remain flexible. His comments signal a possibility of cutting rates at its meeting later in the month. Nevertheless, dollar index improved today, which should be probably affected by the high expectation toward the Nonfarm Productivity Data tonight. On the other hand, traders put bullish bets upon the currency after the Australia Trade balance data released. According to Australian Bureau of Statistic, the balance on goods and services came in with a surplus of $7,291 million in July 2019, an increase of $284 million when compared to the surplus in June 2019. A higher actual trade balance triggered bullish buyback for the AUD. As of writing, US dollar index appreciates by 0.03% to 98.38 while AUD/USD rose 0.35% to 0.6817.
In the commodities market, crude oil prices rose 0.96% to $56.50 per barrel as the speculators raised their expectation for a decrease in EIA Crude Oil inventories data. On the other hand, gold price tumbles 0.59% to $1543.17 a troy ounce as investor shift their investment to financial market due to improvement in risk appetite.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:15 | USD- ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Aug) | 156K | 148K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 215K | 215K | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Aug) | 53.7 | 54.0 | – |
| 23:00 | CrudeOIL- Crude Oil Inventories | -10.027M | -2.488M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 98.20. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 98.65.
Resistance level: 98.65, 99.10
Support level: 98.20, 97.90
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1.2170. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish bias signal suggest the pair to experience a technical correction in short term towards the support level 1.2170.
Resistance level: 1.2295, 1.2405
Support level: 1.2170, 1.2090
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1.1030. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower as a technical correction towards the support level 1.0980.
Resistance level: 1.1030, 1.1105
Support level: 1.0980, 1.0930
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY remain traded in a sideway channel while currently testing near the resistance level 106.75. However, MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to be traded higher after it breaks above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 106.75, 107.75
Support level: 105.15, 103.60
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 0.6820. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.6820, 0.6870
Support level: 0.6780, 0.6740
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 0.6345. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.6395.
Resistance level: 0.6395, 0.6490
Support level: 0.6345, 0.6275
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1.3225. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.3185.
Resistance level: 1.3225, 1.3280
Support level: 1.3185, 1.3120
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 0.9820. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.9865.
Resistance level: 0.9865, 0.9905
Support level: 0.9820, 0.9765
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 55.45. MACD which illustrate ongoing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 56.80.
Resistance level: 56.80, 58.75
Support level: 55.45, 53.05
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following recent retracement from the resistance level 1548.10. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its retracement towards the support level 1519.00.
Resistance level: 1548.10, 1588.40
Support level: 1519.00, 1488.85