05 November 2021 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar surged following Fed confirms beginning of contractionary monetary policy.
The Dollar Index which traded against a basket of six major currency pairs surged following the Federal Reserve claimed that they would begin scaling back tis massive $120 billion monthly bond-buying program this month in order to contend the surging inflation rate. Soaring consumer demand in United States has collided with supply chain disruptions, prompting the prices to jump significantly in some sectors for longer than central bank had anticipated. Against the backdrop of robust recovery, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) pledged to reduce its purchases of Treasury securities by $10 billion a month while reduce the purchases of agency mortgage-back securities by $5 billion a month. Bond tapering program would likely to reduce the money circulation in the global financial market, which spurring bullish momentum on the US Dollar. Nonetheless, the gains experienced by the US Dollar was limited over the backdrop of dovish tone from Chair of the Federal Reserve of the United States Jerome Powell. He claimed that the upward pressure on price is “expected to be transitory”, while maintaining the US interest rate at nearly 0% rate in order to maintain the economic stability. As of writing, the Dollar Index appreciated by 0.50% to 94.35.
In the commodities market, the crude oil price slumped 0.05% to $80.00 per barrel as of writing. The oil market edged lower following the OPEC and its allies decided to increase the oil output by 400,000 barrels per day from December. On the other hand, the gold price appreciated by 0.05% to $1792.25 per troy ounces as of writing amid market participants remained the fears toward the stagflation risk in future, which prompting them to shift their portfolio toward the safe-haven gold.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
11:30 AUD RBA Rate Statement
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 17:30 | USD – Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct) | 194k | 450K | – |
| 17:30 | USD – Unemployment Rate (Oct) | 4.7% | 4.8% | – |
| 20:15 | CAD – Employment Change (Oct) | 157.1K | 50.0k | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 94.50. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the index to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 94.50, 95.15
Support level: 93.80, 93.25
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.3615. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 1.3425.
Resistance level: 1.3615, 1.3815
Support level: 1.3425, 1.3305
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.1530. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.1680, 1.1875
Support level: 1.1530, 1.1370
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 113.45. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 114.55, 115.40
Support level: 113.45, 112.05
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.7380. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.7435, 0.7530
Support level: 0.7380, 0.7305
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.7110. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.7155, 0.7240
Support level: 0.7110, 0.7015
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded higher while currently near the resistance level at 1.2460. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.2460, 1.2525
Support level: 1.2400, 1.2335
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.9155. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.9155, 0.9225
Support level: 0.9075, 0.9005
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 79.15. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 81.50, 83.30
Support level: 79.15, 76.10
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1798.25. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1798.25, 1808.90
Support level: 1787.55, 1778.15
Risk Statement:
Forex, Gold, Crude Oil, Commodities, CFD and all other margin trading investment products involve high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Your previous investment success in stock, futures or any other investment achieved does not mean that all your future investment will obtain the same results. You should carefully consider your investment objectives; risk associated and seek professional advice before deciding to trade or if you have any doubts.