06 April 2020 Afternoon Session Analysis
Aussie fell as recession fears mount.
The Australian dollar which traded against its peers and the greenback have fell during late Asian session on Monday as the potential risk of recession continue to dominate the sentiment and weak Australian data. From data perspective, the AIG Performance of Construction Index fell to 37.9 in March from 42.7 in February. At the same time, the Commonwealth Bank Services PMI for the same month was also revised to 38.5. The data which have signalled a steeper economic slowdown in March have continue to exert bearish pressure for the currency. At the same time, the ongoing coronavirus also weigh on the currency. At the moment, strengthening dollar and market risk-aversion have kept Aussie to continue remain in the weak spot. With the global slowdown only likely to intensify as the pandemic worsens, investors have little reason to buy the Australian Dollar much. Still, investors will now focus to the next policy decision from RBA this week where if the bank discusses any quantitative easing (QE) policy, the Australian dollar could extend its selling pressure. At the time of writing, AUD/USD slips 0.11% to 0.6018 while dollar index rose 0.09% to 100.72.
In the commodities market, crude oil price fell 4.25% to $27.29 per barrel as of writing following concerns of oversupply. According to reports, the head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol have recently stated that the oil inventories would still rise by 15 million bpd in the second quarter even with output cuts of 10 million bpd and urged the world’s richest economies to discuss broader ways to stabilize oil markets. Next, gold price remains stable and edge higher 0.03% to $1613.38 a troy ounce at the time of writing as investors remain cautious and waiting for more news and confirmation
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day CNY Ching Ming Festival
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | GBP – Construction PMI (Mar) | 52.6 | 44.0 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 101.10. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the dollar to experience a technical correction in short term towards the support level 98.75.
Resistance level: 101.10, 103.75
Support level: 98.75, 96.40
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded flat near the resistance level 1.2290 following prior breakout below previous support level. However, MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.1990.
Resistance level: 1.2290, 1.2490
Support level: 1.1990, 1.1740
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1.0780. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to be traded higher as a technical correction towards the resistance level 1.0925.
Resistance level: 1.0925, 1.1060
Support level: 1.0780, 1.0640
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 108.95. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gain after it breaks above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 108.95, 111.45
Support level: 107.10, 105.55
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 0.5970. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to experience a technical correction towards the resistance level 0.6190.
Resistance level: 0.6190, 0.6450
Support level: 0.5970, 0.5725
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 0.5840. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to experience a technical correction towards the resistance level 0.6075.
Resistance level: 0.6075, 0.6365
Support level: 0.5840, 0.5580
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD remain traded in a sideway channel following recent retracement from the resistance level 1.4260. Due to lack of momentum and direction from MACD, it is suggested to wait until further signal appear before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1.4260, 1.4550
Support level: 1.4000, 1.3735
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.9775. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish bias signal with the starting formation of death cross suggest the pair to be traded lower as a technical correction towards the support level 0.9650.
Resistance level: 0.9775, 0.9895
Support level: 0.9650, 0.9505
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 28.00. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the commodity to be traded lower towards the support level 20.20.
Resistance level: 28.00, 35.55
Support level: 20.20, 15.00
GOLD_, H4: Gold price remain traded in a sideway channel. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the commodity to be traded lower in short term towards the support level 1575.60.
Resistance level: 1635.95, 1702.25
Support level: 1575.60, 1521.65