6 July 2021 Afternoon Session Analysis
New Zealand Kiwi soars on rate expectation.
The New Zealand Kiwi which traded against the dollar and other currency pairs have rose following positive upbeat data which lifted rate hike expectation. According to the latest Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) from the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER), 60% of the financial service sector firms for the first quarter have expected interest rates to rise over the coming year. Meanwhile, as per the latest New Zealand Q2, Actual Business Confidence came at 7.0% compared to -13% in the previous quarter. The expectation was given based on positive sentiment towards the recovery of the domestic and global economy. On top of that, swaps pricing also shifted to a point of a 3/4 chance November rate hike. At the time of writing, NZD/USD surge 0.77% to 0.7076.
In the commodities market, crude oil price extends gains and rose 0.37% to $76.84 per barrel at the time of writing as market will now not expect an output increase in August after OPEC+ talks collapsed on Monday. On the other hand, gold price rose 0.36% to $1798.20 a troy ounce at the time of writing following dollar retreat.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
12:30 AUD RBA Rate Statement
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 12:30 | AUD – RBA Interest Rate Decision (Jul) | 0.10% | 0.10% | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Construction PMI (Jun) | 64.2 | 63.5 | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jul) | 79.8 | 75.4 | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jun) | 64 | 63.5 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 92.25. MACD which illustrate ongoing bearish momentum signal suggest the dollar to extend its losses towards the support level 91.65.
Resistance level: 92.25, 92.70
Support level: 91.65, 91.30
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1.3830. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.3935.
Resistance level: 1.3935, 1.4020
Support level: 1.3830, 1.3755
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded flat near the support level 1.1850. However, MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to be traded higher towards the resistance level 1.1920.
Resistance level: 1.1920, 1.1985
Support level: 1.1850, 1.1785
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 111.00. MACD which Illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 110.30.
Resistance level: 111.00, 111.60
Support level: 110.30, 109.75
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 0.7545. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.7595.
Resistance level: 0.7595, 0.7650
Support level: 0.7545, 0.7475
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.7075. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.7075, 0.7135
Support level: 0.7010, 0.6925
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.2350. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.2275.
Resistance level: 1.2350, 1.2420
Support level: 1.2275, 1.2185
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded flat while currently testing near the support level 0.9195. However, MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.9245, 0.9310
Support level: 0.9195, 0.9135
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 76.30. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 78.75.
Resistance level: 78.75, 80.45
Support level: 76.30, 74.20
GOLD_, H4: Gold price remain traded in a sideway channel while currently testing near the resistance level 1812.10. However, MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the commodity to be traded higher after it breaks above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1812.10, 1856.00
Support level: 1767.55, 1725.50