9 July 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Market consolidates ahead of Powell speech.
Dollar index which measures its value against a basket of six major currency pairs was floating near its 97.00 level while investors wait for further signals this week from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell as he delivers a speech and testimony regarding US economic outlook and Fed’s monetary policy actions. The testimony which covers two sessions will include a prepared statement and also a question and answer session where high market volatility can be expected. Investors are focusing on what Powell might deliver as recent upbeat jobs data had since scaled back the expectations of an aggressive monetary policy loosening by the Fed. Market is now currently expecting a 25 basis point rate cut rather than 50 basis point during Fed’s July monetary policy meeting after the recent job data proved a stronger labor market. In other news, pair of GBP/USD continues to hover near its 6-months low as pressure from Brexit uncertainties and stronger dollar continues to haunt the pound market. With a new Prime Minister being elected this month, investors are concerned that a no-deal Brexit suggested by leading candidate Boris Johnson might further worsen the UK’s economy. Besides that, recent slump in its economic data had also lowered investors’ confidence towards the pound. As of writing, dollar index was flat at 96.95 while pair of GBP/USD inched lower by 0.02% to 1.2512.
In the commodities market, crude oil price fell by 0.07% to $57.43 per barrel. Sentiment in oil markets remained cloudy even after OPEC’s announcement of further production cut with its allies. Investors are now focusing on Fed’s interest rate decision to determine a possible trend for crude oil as a weaker dollar will increase oil’s appeal. Besides that, gold price fell 0.13% to $1393.30 a troy ounce as expectations for an aggressive rate cut was lowered down following upbeat jobs data.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
20:45 USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | CAD – Building Permits (MoM) (May) | 14.7% | -2.5% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – JOLTs Job Openings (May) | 7.449M | 7.470M | – |
| 04:30 (10th) | CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | -5.000M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 96.95. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the dollar to undergo a technical correction in short term towards the support level 96.35.
Resistance level: 96.95, 97.55
Support level: 96.35, 95.80
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.2510. However, MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to be traded higher as a technical correction towards the resistance level 1.2595.
Resistance level: 1.2595, 1.2655
Support level: 1.2510, 1.2440
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.1235. However, MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to experience a short term technical correction towards back the resistance level 1.1235.
Resistance level: 1.1235, 1.1280
Support level: 1.1185, 1.1145
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following recent breakout above the previous resistance level 108.70.MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 109.15.
Resistance level: 109.15, 109.75
Support level: 108.70, 108.15
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 0.6965. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to experience a technical correction in short term towards the resistance level 0.7000.
Resistance level: 0.7000, 0.7035
Support level: 0.6965, 0.6930
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.6650. However, MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to experience a technical correction towards back the resistance level 0.6650.
Resistance level: 0.6650, 0.6720
Support level: 0.6600, 0.6550
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD remain traded in a sideway channel while currently testing near the resistance level 1.3105. However, MACD which illustrate persistent bullish bias signal suggest the pair to be traded higher after it breaks above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.3105, 1.3160
Support level: 1.3040, 1.2970
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 0.9935. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.0005.
Resistance level: 1.0005, 1.0095
Support level: 0.9935, 0.9870
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded flat while currently testing the resistance level 57.60. However, MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the commodity to be traded lower in short term towards the support level 56.00.
Resistance level: 57.60, 59.60
Support level: 56.00, 54.50
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1403.15. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish bias signal suggest the commodity to experience a technical correction in short term back towards the resistance level 1403.15.
Resistance level: 1403.15, 1421.40
Support level: 1386.35, 1370.00