10 July 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar inch higher as market focused on pared rate cut expectation.
Dollar index continue to rise against its basket of six major currency pairs despite downbeat job data. According to US Bureau of Labor Statistics, job vacancies in U.S have fell weaker to 7.323M, which missed economist’s expectation with the reading of 7.470M. However, market was unfazed and regain its footing as investors continue to question “the excessive dovish hopes” they had for a Federal Reserve rate cut. Expectations for a 50-basis point cut have fallen to 5% from 25% last week and investors postulate that there is a higher chance the Fed will not cut rates at the September meeting. Market continue to anticipate for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speech happen later today as the speech which neutral or even slightly hawkish, would support the argument that additional rate cuts will be limited. Dollar index rose 0.06% to 97.09 as of writing. On the other hand, USD/CAD edge higher 0.04% to 1.3129 at the time of writing ahead of BoC interest rate decision. Market remains awaiting for the Bank of Canada (BoC) to release its rate statement on later today, as the market anticipates the central bank keeping rates intact at 1.75 percent. Governor Poloz is also expected to continue with the dovish rhetoric that has become common place with major central banks.
In the commodities market, crude oil price regain its strength and rose 0.60% to $58.60 per barrel as of writing following a drop in crude stockpiles. According to the data from American Petroleum Institute (API), with the inventories have dropped by 8.1 million barrels, which is more than forecasted reading for a decrease of 3.1 million. Inventories have fell for the fourth week in a row, which have alleviated concerns about oversupply and support the demand for crude oil while market awaits further confirmation on official figures from Energy Information Administration. Next, gold price have plummeted 0.33% to $1393.24 a troy ounce at the time of writing following bullish buyers continue to dominate the greenback which caused investors to turned their safe-haven assets into the greenback.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
22.00 USD Fed Chair Powell Testifies
22.00 CAD BoC Monetary Policy Report
22.00 CAD BoC Rate Statement
22.15 CAD BoC Press Conference
02.00(11th) USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16.30 | GBP – GDP (MoM) | -0.4% | 0.3% | – |
| 16.30 | GBP – Manufacturing Production (MoM) (May) | -3.9% | 2.2% | – |
| 22.00 | CAD – BoC Interest Rate Decision | 1.75% | 1.75% | – |
| 22.30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | -1.085M | -3.081M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level 97.00. MACD which display bullish momentum suggest index to extend its gains towards the resistance level 97.60.
Resistance level: 97.60, 98.20
Support level: 97.00, 96.35
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below previous support level 1.2490. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.2425.
Resistance level: 1.2490, 1.2555
Support level: 1.2425, 1.2365
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.1240. However, MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to rebound back towards the resistance level 1.1240 as a short-term technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.1240, 1.1305
Support level: 1.1180, 1.1120
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 108.70. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to retrace back towards the support level 108.70 as a short-term technical correction.
Resistance level: 109.15, 109.70
Support level: 108.70, 108.20
AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below previous support level at 0.6930. MACD which display bearish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.6900.
Resistance level: 0.6930, 0.6965
Support level: 0.6900, 0.6860
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.6635. MACD which display persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.6580.
Resistance level: 0.6635, 0.6675
Support level: 0.6580, 0.6540
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level at 1.3110. MACD which display ongoing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.3160.
Resistance level: 1.3160, 1.3240
Support level: 1.3110, 1.3050
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.9940. However, MACD which display bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction and retrace towards the support level 0.9905.
Resistance level: 0.9940, 0.9985
Support level: 0.9905, 0.9860
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level 57.95. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 60.20.
Resistance level: 60.20, 61.80
Support level: 57.95, 56.00
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the 20-MA line (green). MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses towards the support level 1386.35 after successfully breaking below the 20-MA line.
Resistance level: 1405.00, 1421.40
Support level: 1386.35. 1370.00