10 October 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Pessimism surrounds US-China trade talk.
US dollar depreciates slightly against other major currencies on yesterday while investors scrutinize the upcoming high-level trade talk and the release of Federal Reserve meeting minutes. According to South China Morning Post, both US and China make no progress with regards to key trade issue over the past two days of deputy-level talks. Chinese delegation refused to discuss about forced technology transfer, one of the key trade talk agenda from the United States. Likewise, China expressed their disappointment over US announcement to blacklist a list of Chinese companies last Monday, while expressing their pessimism to achieve any trade deal breakthrough for the week. On the other hand, the release of Federal Reserve meeting minutes shows similar bearish tone among its policymakers. The Fed sees risks to continue surrounds the US economy although it is still far from plunging into a recession. However, several policymakers favor to keep their interest rate unchanged for the time being as they believe baseline economic projection did not stray off too much for the time being. On the other hand, pound sterling continues to be subjected by bearish pressure after UK and EU Brexit talks falters just a few weeks before 31st October deadline. Both sides struggled to achieve a consensus over Ireland backstop issue with EU insisting for border controls without additional checks while Northern Ireland remains in a custom union until an alternative has been found. As of writing, the dollar index fell 0.02% to 98.78 while EUR/USD rose 0.14% to 1.0984.
In the commodities market, crude oil price plunged 1.37% to $51.95 per barrel. Oil price fell sharply after China expressed their pessimism over achieving a trade deal this week. The inability to achieve a deal may push the global economic momentum further down, and thus reduces oil demand in the long-term. On the other hand, gold price rose 0.55% to $1,513.75 a troy ounce due to higher risk aversion in the market.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
17:20 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
19:00 CrudeOIL OPEC Monthly Report
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | GBP – GDP (QoQ) | 0.0% | 0.1% | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Aug) | 0.35 | 0.1% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core CPI (MoM) (Sep) | 0.3% | 0.2% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 219K | 215K | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retrace from the upper levels. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the index to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 99.00, 99.20
Support level: 98.60, 98.40
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded flat near the support of 1.2170. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.2275, 1.2325
Support level: 1.2170, 1.2085
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing at the downward trendline. MACD which begins to form bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after breaking the trendline.
Resistance level: 1.1010, 1.1070
Support level: 1.0960, 1.0930
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing at the support of 107.05. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the support level.
Resistance level: 107.60, 108.10
Support level: 107.05, 106.55
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing at the support of 0.6705. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.6745, 0.6800
Support level: 0.6705, 0.6670
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from 0.6310. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further down, towards the direction of 0.6250.
Resistance level: 0.6310, 0.6360
Support level: 0.6250, 0.6215
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior closure above 1.3340. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up, towards the direction of 1.3375.
Resistance level: 1.3375, 1.3420
Support level: 1.3340, 1.3315
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing at the support of 0.9925. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after closing below 0.9925.
Resistance level: 0.9970, 1.0010
Support level: 0.9925, 0.9865
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retrace from the upper levels. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its price to be traded lower in short-term.
Resistance level: 53.00, 54.45
Support level: 51.60, 50.55
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior close above 1511.00. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its price to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1532.40, 1550.70
Support level: 1511.00, 1484.05