11 October 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Inflation diminishes, more rate cut ahead?
Greenback depreciates further on yesterday after bearish consumer prices data from the region sparks higher possibility for interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve. As of writing, the dollar index was quoted down 0.43% to 98.36. According to Labor Department, Core Consumer Price Index for the month of September came in at 0.1%, missing economist forecast of 0.2%. The depreciation is mainly due to a large reduction in the sales of used cars. A downward trend in inflation rate may spark higher chances for an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve as early as Oct 29 – 30 policy meeting. Nonetheless, greenback managed to limit its losses after Initial Jobless Claims for last week came in at 210,000 individuals, fared better than forecast of 215,000. On the other hand, pound sterling skyrocketed after Prime Ministers of UK and Ireland released a joint statement, touting for a possibility to achieve a Brexit deal with EU. Although few details were released, the news helped to spark higher speculation for UK to avoid a no-deal Brexit which could jeopardize the economic momentum of both UK and EU. Pair of GBP/USD ticks up 0.02% to 1.2434.
As for commodities, crude oil price rose 0.13% to $53.98 per barrel. Oil prices received some bullish momentum after a series of US sanction upon Chinese transportation companies lead to a disruption of global oil shipments. On the other hand, gold price ticked down 0.01% to $1,493.41 a troy ounce due to diminishing Brexit risk in the UK.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
Tentative CrudeOIL OPEC Meeting
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | USD – Import Price Index (MoM) (Sep) | -0.5% | -0.1% | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Employment Change (Sep) | 81.1K | 10.0K | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Unemployment Rate (Sep) | 5.7% | 5.7% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Oct) | 93.2 | 92.0 | – |
| 01:00
(12th) |
CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 710 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing at the support of 98.30. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the index to extend its losses after closing below 98.30.
Resistance level: 98.40, 98.65
Support level: 98.30, 98.20
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from its higher levels. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests its price to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.2515, 1.2600
Support level: 1.2400, 1.2325
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from its higher level. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.1010, 1.1070
Support level: 1.0960, 1.0930
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior close above 107.60. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up, towards the direction of 108.10.
Resistance level: 108.10, 108.45
Support level: 107.60, 107.05
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from its higher levels. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term.
Resistance level: 0.6800, 0.6830
Support level: 0.6745, 0.6705
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support at 0.6310. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 0.6360.
Resistance level: 0.6360, 0.6435
Support level: 0.6310, 0.6250
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior closure below 1.3315. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 1.3280.
Resistance level: 1.3315, 1.3340
Support level: 1.3280, 1.3255
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing at 0.9970. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above 0.9970.
Resistance level: 0.9970, 1.0010
Support level: 0.9925, 0.9865
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its price to be traded higher, towards the direction of 54.45.
Resistance level: 54.45, 55.55
Support level: 53.00, 51.60
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retrace from the higher levels. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its price to be traded lower in short-term, towards the direction of 1484.05.
Resistance level: 1511.00, 1532.40
Support level: 1484.05, 1460.00