12 March 2020 Afternoon Session Analysis
US bans travels from EU due to Covid-19.
Euro was traded within a tight range as market participants awaits the result from European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting later tonight. ECB is expected to announce measures in order to combat negative impact from the coronavirus pandemic. The central bank may cut its interest rate further into the negative territory and might unveil liquidity measures such as new lending programmes that targeted at small and medium enterprises. However, investors would also scrutinize on how monetary measures is being integrated on fiscal stimulus as the eurozone remains constrained by deficit rules while several countries are facing minimal to no space in expanding their fiscal plans. Nonetheless, sentiment among investors with regards to ECB and its measures remains pessimistic as measures taken may be similar to current setting with lower interest rates and higher amount of quantitative easing. Thus, a more pronounced fiscal stimulus will be needed in conjunction with monetary easing to reduce recessive risks from the EU zone. On the other hand, US dollar tumbled during Asian trading session after US President Donald Trump addresses to the nation in response to Covid-19 pandemic. In his speech, Trump announced that US will suspend all travel from Europe to US for the next 30 days, effective on Friday midnight. He also instructs US Treasury to defer tax payments without interests or penalties for certain business and individuals whom are impacted by the pandemic. The announcement has sparked concerns that US may be succumbed to the rapidly spreading pandemic which was being downplayed from White House prior. As of writing, pair of EUR/USD rose 0.46% to 1.1319 while the dollar index slumped 0.38% to 96.12.
In the commodities market, crude oil price plunged by 6.80% to $30.84 per barrel. According to Reuters, United Arab Emirates followed Saudi Arabia footsteps by announcing plans to boost oil output after OPEC and Russia negotiation collapsed last week. On the other hand, gold price ticks up 0.01% to $1,633.66 a troy ounce due to risk aversion in the market.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
20.45 EUR ECB Monetary Policy Statement
21.30 EUR ECB Press Conference
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20.30 | USD – PPI (MoM) | 0.5% | -0.1% | – |
| 20.45 | EUR – Deposit Facility Rate (Mar) | -0.50% | -0.50% | – |
| 20.45 | EUR – ECB Marginal Lending Facility | 0.25% | 0.25% | – |
| 20.45 | EUR – ECB Interest Rate Decision (Mar) | 0.00% | 0.00% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4：Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 96.00. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the index to be traded lower after it successfully breakout below the support level at 96.00.
Resistance level: 96.55, 96.80
Support level: 96.00, 95.40
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.2915. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.2745.
Resistance level: 1.2915, 1.3130
Support level: 1.2745, 1.2570
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.1295. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level at 1.1295.
Resistance level: 1.1295, 1.1450
Support level: 1.1255, 1.1195
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 105.15. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short term technical correction toward the resistance level at 105.15.
Resistance level: 105.15, 106.20
Support level: 103.10, 100.20
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.6465. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level at 0.6465.
Resistance level: 0.6515, 0.6545
Support level: 0.6465, 0.6400
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.6255. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound toward the resistance level at 0.6285.
Resistance level: 0.6285, 0.6315
Support level: 0.6255, 0.6205
USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.3650. MACD which illustrated bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.3830.
Resistance level: 1.3830, 1.4060
Support level: 1.3650, 1.3360
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.9330. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.9395, 0.9450
Support level: 0.9330, 0.9265
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 29.75.
Resistance level: 39.20, 46.65
Support level: 29.75, 25.30
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1635.60. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1647.15
Resistance level: 1647.15, 1663.90
Support level: 1635.60, 1626.05