12 July 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar regains footing on strong inflation data.
Dollar index have edge higher against its basket of six major currency rivals by 0.03% to 96.62 at the time of writing following a stronger than expected U.S inflation data which eased the prospect of Fed rate cut. According to the U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics, core consumer price index which exclude food and energy rose 0.3% in June, its largest increase in almost one and a half years. At the same time, separate data such as Initial Jobless Claims also came out strong with the result of 209K, which is better than market expectation with the reading of 223K. The positive data which show signs of improvement in the underlying inflation could tempered the prospect of a more aggressive 50 basis point rate cut by FED later this month, therefore provided some boost for the dollar. However, investors still remain cautious as market still expecting for a quarter percentage point cut as U.S. policymakers seek to support a slowing economy. On the other hand, GBP/USD notched up 0.11% to 1.2599 as of writing following increasing chance of leading candidate Boris Johnson winning the Tory leadership contest. According to latest polls, front-runner Boris Johnson are looking to be on course for a landslide victory as the contest are coming to a close end within 12 days. Despite fresh warnings from the Bank of England of the economic damage that could follow a “no-deal” Brexit, market remain confident and hoping that Boris Johnson could succeed Theresa May in delivering Brexit.
In the commodities market, crude oil price remains steady and edge higher 0.25% to $60.47 per barrel as of writing amid escalating tension between U.S and Iran and potential supply disruption. In recent reports, crude oil sentiment was supported by rumors concerning the US prepares for an air strike over Iranian targets in Syria. At the same time, reports on a tropical storm with “extreme rain” which is forecasted to hit the U.S Gulf coast that could sent oil operation shutting down its production joined further positive sentiment for the oil market. Next, gold price slightly rebound from its losses by 0.25% to $1407.54 a troy ounce at the time of writing after a strong inflation data that beat Fed expectation have previously dragged the safe-haven gold lower.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
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Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
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Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20.30 | USD – PPI (MoM) (Jun) | 0.1% | 0.1% | – |
| 01.00 (13th) | CrudeOIL – U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 788 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 96.35. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the dollar to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 97.00.
Resistance level: 97.00, 97.60
Support level: 96.35, 95.50
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the 20-MA line (green). MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the 20-MA line.
Resistance level: 1.2555, 1.2610
Support level: 1.2490, 1.2425
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the 20-MA line (green) and support level 1.1240. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the 20-MA line and support level.
Resistance level: 1.1305, 1.1360
Support level: 1.1240, 1.1180
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing near the 60-MA line (red). MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully closing below the 60-MA line.
Resistance level: 108.70, 109.15
Support level: 108.20, 107.60
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 0.6965. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.7000.
Resistance level: 0.7000, 0.7040
Support level: 0.6965, 0.6930
NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 0.6675. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.6675, 0.6720
Support level: 0.6635, 0.6580
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD remained traded in a sideway channel while currently testing the support level 1.3050. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction and rebound towards the resistance level 1.3110.
Resistance level: 1.3110, 1.3160
Support level: 1.3050, 1.2985
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.9905. MACD which display bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.9905, 0.9940
Support level: 0.9860, 0.9805
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing the support level 60.20. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.
Resistance level: 61.80, 63.15
Support level: 60.20, 57.95
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the 60-MA line (red). MACD which illustrate diminished bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the 60-MA line.
Resistance level: 1405.00, 1421.40
Support level: 1386.35. 1370.00