12 August 2020 Morning Session Analysis
During early Asian session, the pound sterling which traded against the greenback and other currency pairs have fell following weak employment in the UK causing the pair to struggle. According to the National Statistics, the number of people that are currently in employment have fell by 220,000 in the 2nd quarter. This was the largest fall in employment since 2009. Despite with the support from the government, the labour market in the U.K remains fragile due to the coronavirus crisis. At the same time, the unemployment rate held steady at 3.9%. However, the data also reflected a huge number of UK individuals have gave up looking for work. On top of that, the average earnings data which excluded bonus also fell to -0.2%, missing market expectation of 0.5%. Separate data also showed that the number of staff on company payrolls fell by -730,000 since March. This suggests there will be a larger increase in the country’s unemployment rate. As of writing, GBP/USD fell 0.05% to 1.3051.
In the commodities market, crude oil price slips 0.16% to $41.61 per barrel at the time of writing following fears about weaker oil demand resurfaced with the end of summer driving season. The end of the summer driving season where Americans travel and take to the road would limit the demand recovery, thus causing the commodity price to ease due to more people are now expected to work from home. On the other hand, gold price tumbles 0.45% to $1918.14 a troy ounce as of writing following a recovering dollar and expectations of a nearing U.S. stimulus.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
10.00 NZD RBNZ Rate Statement
11.00 NZD RBNZ Press Conference
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 10.00 | NZD – RBNZ Interest Rate Decision | 0.25% | 0.25% | – |
| 14.00 | GBP – GDP (MoM) | 1.8% | – | – |
| 14.00 | GBP – Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Jun) | 8.4% | 10.0% | – |
| 14.00 | GBP – Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change | -19.1% | – | – |
| 20.30 | USD – Core CPI (MoM) (Jul) | -7.373M | -2.875M | – |
| 22.30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | -7.373M | -2.875M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index remain traded in a sideway channel. However, MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the dollar to be traded lower in short term towards the support level 92.45.
Resistance level: 94.00, 95.70
Support level: 92.45, 90.70
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remain traded in a sideway channel while currently testing near the support level 1.3005. However, MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to be traded lower after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.3200, 1.3320
Support level: 1.3005, 1.2810
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.1795. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to be traded higher in short term back to resistance level 1.1795.
Resistance level: 1.1795, 1.1895
Support level: 1.1690, 1.1575
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following recent breakout above the previous resistance level 106.20. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to experience a short term technical correction to current support level 106.20.
Resistance level: 106.75, 107.40
Support level: 106.20, 105.25
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.7185. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.7040.
Resistance level: 0.7185, 0.7290
Support level: 0.7040, 0.6935
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 0.6580. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.6510.
Resistance level: 0.6580, 0.6685
Support level: 0.6510, 0.6395
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded flat while currently retest the resistance level 1.3330. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher after it breaks above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.3330, 1.3485
Support level: 1.3195, 1.3095
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following recent rebound from its low level. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.9230.
Resistance level: 0.9230, 0.9365
Support level: 0.9065, 0.8985
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 42.85. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses towards the support level 41.05.
Resistance level: 42.60, 43.55
Support level: 41.05, 39.15
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1908.55. MACD which illustrate ongoing bearish momentum signal suggest the commodity to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level 1908.55.
Resistance level: 1970.60, 2016.10
Support level: 1908.55, 1857.95