12 December 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Pound sterling surged while election looms.
Pound Sterling edged higher on Wednesday despite an opinion poll for Britain’s election that showed that the ruling Conservative Party might fail to win a majority. According Reuters, a closely watched model from pollsters YouGov put Prime Minister Boris Johnson on course to win a majority of 28 in parliament on Thursday, however the result is lower than the forecast of 68 last month. Indeed, a narrowing of the Conservatives leads just a day before the vote has cast some doubt over the expectations of a definitive outcome. In fact, many analyses believed that a win for the main opposition Labor Party could lead to more geopolitical uncertainty in UK, which might be spurring a huge sell-off for the Pound Sterling. However, the Pound Sterling still remained strong yesterday amid to positive expectation of the market participants for the Conservatives to win Britain election. If the Conservatives win, they would pass a withdrawal deal with European Union as soon as possible, ending the 3 and ½ years political uncertainty in UK. At this time, investors would continue to scrutinize the latest outcome for the Britain election today in order to gauge the likelihood movement for the Pound Sterling. As of writing, GBP/USD appreciated by 0.25% to 1.3225 while dollar index slumped 0.38% to 96.98 following the dovish statement provided by the chairman of Fed Jerome Powell with regards of the US economy growth outlook.
In the commodities market, crude oil price surged 0.04% to $58.84 per barrel amid to OPEC forecast a supply deficit for the oil commodity. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on yesterday claimed that it is now expected a small deficit in the oil market in the next year, suggesting the market is tighter than previously thought. On the other hand, gold price surged 0.04% to $1475.08 per troy ounces amid to stronger greenback.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
16:30 CHF SNB Monetary Policy Assessment
17:00 CHF SNB Press Conference
Tentative GBP U.K. General Election
20:45 EUR ECB Monetary Policy Statement
21:30 EUR ECB Press Conference
01:30 CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks
(13th Dec)
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | CHF- SNB Interest Rate Decision | -0.75% | -0.75% | – |
| 20:45 | EUR – Deposit Facility Rate (Dec) | -0.50% | -0.50% | – |
| 20:45 | EUR – ECB Marginal Lending Facility | 0.25% | 0.25% | – |
| 20:45 | EUR – ECB Interest Rate Decision (Dec) | 0.00 | 0.00 | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 203K | 213K | – |
| 21:30 | USD – PPI (MoM) (Nov) | 0.4% | 0.2% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 96.95. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the dollar to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 97.55, 98.20
Support level: 96.95, 96.50
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the resistance level 1.3190. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.3295.
Resistance level: 1.3295, 1.3405
Support level: 1.3190, 1.3090
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following recent rebound from the support level 1.1080. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.1170.
Resistance level: 1.1170, 1.1250
Support level: 1.1080, 1.0990
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 108.45. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal with the starting formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend it losses after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 109.00, 109.40
Support level: 108.45, 107.90
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.6885. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.6885, 0.6925
Support level: 0.6850, 0.6805
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.6585. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.6585, 0.6650
Support level: 0.6500, 0.6435
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1.3185. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.3125.
Resistance level: 1.3185, 1.3260
Support level: 1.3125, 1.3065
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 0.9845. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.9795.
Resistance level: 0.9845, 0.9915
Support level: 0.9795, 0.9725
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 58.55. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to be extend its rebound towards the resistance level 59.70.
Resistance level: 59.70, 60.85
Support level: 58.55, 57.50
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1477.90. MACD which illustrate ongoing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1477.90, 1497.00
Support level: 1463.70, 1450.75