12 December 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Cash rate unchanged while uncertainty remained.
Dollar index which gauge its value against a basket of six major currencies dived to the one month low level after Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to maintain its interest rate unchanged while emphasizing that US economy is still remain weak. Due to persistently low inflation, Fed board members agreed that no adjustment should be made as of now, while saying current monetary policy is sufficient enough to support the economy from slowing down. Moreover, the chairman of Fed Jerome Powell also reiterated that US inflation is getting worst while comparing to last year, it’s been a tough challenge for US to catch up their 2% inflation target thus a rate hike is impossible for them at this moment unless they see a persistent and significant rise in inflation. Besides, Jerome Powell was also saying in the press conference that if USMCA deal is enacted, some of uncertainty over the US economy growth could be removed. However, trade gridlock between US and China is still remains as the major ‘poison’ that haunting the US economy outlook. Therefore, Federal Reserve will now continue to eye on the development of trade talk and accessing more economic data in order to determine the most appropriate monetary policy stance for US economy growth. During Asian early trading session, dollar index dipped 0.29% to $97.05.
In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.12% to $58.90 per barrel after recording a fall of more than $10 yesterday amid data from EIA showed a stockpile in crude oil inventory level. According to EIA, US crude oil inventories data came in at 0.822M, higher than economist forecast of drawing 2.763M. Otherwise, gold price quoted up 0.02% to $1474.65 due to dovish stance from Federal Reserve with regards to the US economy growth outlook.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
16:30 CHF SNB Monetary Policy Assessment
17:00 CHF SNB Press Conference
Tentative GBP U.K. General Election
20:45 EUR ECB Monetary Policy Statement
21:30 EUR ECB Press Conference
01:30 CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks
(13th Dec)
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | CHF- SNB Interest Rate Decision | -0.75% | -0.75% | – |
| 20:45 | EUR – Deposit Facility Rate (Dec) | -0.50% | -0.50% | – |
| 20:45 | EUR – ECB Marginal Lending Facility | 0.25% | 0.25% | – |
| 20:45 | EUR – ECB Interest Rate Decision (Dec) | 0.00 | 0.00 | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 203K | 213K | – |
| 21:30 | USD – PPI (MoM) (Nov) | 0.4% | 0.2% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 97.25. MACD which illustrated bearish momentum suggest the index to extend its losses toward the support level at 96.85.
Resistance level: 97.25, 97.70
Support level: 96.85, 96.50
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.3170. MACD which illustrated bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level at 1.3170.
Resistance level: 1.3170, 1.3315
Support level: 1.3035, 1.2970
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.1075. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1.1170.
Resistance level: 1.1170, 1.1240
Support level: 1.1075, 1.1005
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 108.45. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to undergo short term technical correction toward the resistance level at 108.45.
Resistance level: 109.00, 109.40
Support level: 108.45, 107.95
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement near the resistance level at 0.6880. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement toward the support level at 0.6855.
Resistance level: 0.6880, 0.6920
Support level: 0.6855, 0.6815
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement near the resistance level at 0.6600. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 0.6570.
Resistance level: 0.6600, 0.6625
Support level: 0.6570, 0.6535
USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.3210. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.3145.
Resistance level: 1.3210, 1.3265
Support level: 1.3145, 1.3085
USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.9845. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.9810.
Resistance level: 0.9845, 0.9885
Support level: 0.9810, 0.9760
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 58.60. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 59.70.
Resistance level: 59.70, 60.80
Support level: 58.60, 57.60
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the higher level. However, MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum suggest the commodity to extend undergo technical correction toward the resistance level at 1480.95.
Resistance level: 1480.95, 1484.70
Support level: 1471.65, 1464.05