13 March 2020 Afternoon Session Analysis
Euro recovered its losses following ECB policy decision.
Euro managed to recover its losses during Asian trading session following European Central Bank policy meeting on yesterday. The pair of EUR/USD rose 0.04% to 1.1187 as of writing. Prior to ECB’s policy meeting, investors speculated the central bank to cut its interest rates deeper into the negative territory, spurring large selloff from its previous high levels. However, euro managed to attract buyback from low levels after ECB decided to leave its interest rates unchanged, contrary to broader speculation that they may cut its interest rates by 10 basis points. Meanwhile, ECB announced a new Long-Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO), a cheap loan scheme for European banks at 25 basis points below the main refinancing operations rate in order to provide immediate liquidity. In addition, the central bank also raised bond purchasing by 120 billion euros per month. However, latest measures announced by ECB failed to stem global stock rout, which resumed after US Federal Reserve took aggressive step to add liquidity to Treasury financing markets. Speaking in a press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde commented that governments should act to soften the economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak. Her comments sparked concerns that the central bank may not provide additional protection to highly indebted country, specifically Italy which is badly hit by the pandemic. Following her comments, 10-year Italian bond experienced significant selloff, sending its yields from 1.3% to 1.8%.
As for commodities market, crude oil price slumped 0.74% to $30.73 per barrel. Oil prices fell for the third consecutive day as panic upon diminishing market demand for crude oil rises due to rapidly spreading coronavirus worldwide. On the other hand, gold price slumped 1.44% to $1,554.88 a troy ounce as traders shifts into equity market and cover margins calls following large selloff since Monday.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
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Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
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Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 22.00 | USD – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Mar) | 101.0 | 95.0 | – |
| 01:00
(14th) |
CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 682 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4：Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 97.35. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the index to be traded lower after it successfully breakout below the support level at 97.35.
Resistance level: 97.90, 98.35
Support level: 97.45, 96.80
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.2570. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.2410.
Resistance level: 1.2570, 1.2745
Support level: 1.2410, 1.2325
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.1195. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level at 1.1195.
Resistance level: 1.1195, 1.1295
Support level: 1.1120, 1.1040
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 105.15. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short term toward the support level at 103.65.
Resistance level: 105.15, 106.20
Support level: 103.65, 102.05
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.6275. MACD which illustrated bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.6330.
Resistance level: 0.6330, 0.6400
Support level: 0.6275, 0.6230
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.6090. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound toward the resistance level at 0.6165.
Resistance level: 0.6165, 0.6205
Support level: 0.6090, 0.6030
USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.3830. MACD which illustrated bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.4060.
Resistance level: 1.4060, 1.4375
Support level: 1.3830, 1.3650
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.9450. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.9395.
Resistance level: 0.9450, 0.9535
Support level: 0.9395, 0.9325
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the higher level. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to undergo technical rebound toward higher level.
Resistance level: 39.20, 46.60
Support level: 29.75, 25.30
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1584.45. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 1551.40.
Resistance level: 1584.45, 1635.30
Support level: 1551.40, 1532.40