14 February 2023 Morning Session Analysis
US dollar teeters ahead of long-awaited CPI data.
The dollar index, which is traded against a basket of six major currencies, teetered on the verge of collapse as the market participant waited for the inflation report to scrutinize if there would be a pivot turn from Fed going forward. At this point in time, economists are expecting the Consumer Price Index (CPI) would drop from 6.4% to 6.2% on an annual basis, increasingly betting the Federal Reserve might take a step back further from its aggressive rate hike plan if the data shows a decent easing of inflationary pressure. A year ago, the Federal Reserve started its long journey of curbing persistent-high inflation by raising the interest rate unstoppably. With that, the inflation figure has been successfully brought down to 6.4% at the end of the year 2022 despite still being far away from the Fed’s long-term target of 2%. The first inflation figure for the year will undeniably provide a clearer picture to investors gauging the Fed monetary policy’s future path. It is noteworthy to warn that a higher-than-expected inflation number could cause markets to reconsider the possibility of keeping interest rates high for a long time, and if so, a trend reversal might be triggered. As of writing, the dollar index dropped -0.32% to 103.30.
In the commodities market, crude oil prices were down by -0.72% to $79.10 per barrel amid the renewed inflation fears overshadowed the oil cut plan from Russia. Besides, gold prices edged down -0.67% to $1853.45 per troy ounce ahead of the inflation report release.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
20:00 CrudeOIL OPEC Monthly Report
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:00 | GBP – Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Dec) | 6.4% | 6.2% | – |
| 15:00 | GBP – Claimant Count Change (Jan) | 19.7K | 17.9K | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Core CPI (MoM) (Jan) | 0.4% | 0.4% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – CPI (YoY) (Jan) | 6.5% | 6.2% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher following a prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 103.15. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggests the index to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 105.00.
Resistance level: 105.00, 106.65
Support level: 103.15, 101.25
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.2105. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.2105, 1.2200
Support level: 1.1940, 1.1820
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded higher following the prior rebound from the support level at 1.0670. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.0850.
Resistance level: 1.0850, 1.0975
Support level: 1.0670, 1.0295
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded higher following the prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 131.25. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to undergo technical correction in short term.
Resistance level: 134.15, 136.45
Support level: 131.25, 128.60
AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded higher following the prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.6985.
Resistance level: 0.6985, 0.7145
Support level: 0.6860, 0.6725
NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.6355.
Resistance level: 0.6355, 0.6460
Support level: 0.6255, 0.6170
USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded lower following a prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.3400. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.3265.
Resistance level: 1.3400, 1.3505
Support level: 1.3265, 1.3155
USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.9225. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.9110.
Resistance level: 0.9225, 0.9310
Support level: 0.9110, 0.9040
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 76.10. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 81.80.
Resistance level: 81.80, 86.15
Support level: 76.10, 71.50
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1859.90. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggests the commodity to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 1884.00, 1900.00
Support level: 1859.90, 1835.00