14 May 2020 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar swings up and down amid mixed Fed dovish statement.
Dollar index which gauges its value against a basket of six major currencies was traded up and down, having a mixed pattern as the statement from Federal Reserve sent mixed signal to the market. In the Fed speech, Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell revealed that the spread of Covid-19 has created devastating impact toward the US economy. Therefore, Powell re-emphasized that US central bank would take all possible measures to mitigate the negative effect of Coronavirus pandemic, avoiding long term crisis continue to suppress on the economy. As of the outbreak of virus has urged the US government to implement lockdown measure, hence Jerome Powell remarked that the unemployment rate will skyrocketed and remain in high level till the end of the virus-spreading. Nonetheless, Jerome Powell emphasized that his view with regards to negative interest rate remain unchanged, where negative interest will never be a choice for board of Fed to take in the meantime. Besides, bearish momentum was continued to ride on the US dollar following the release of downbeat economic data. According to the US Bureau of Labour Statistics, US PPI data dropped sharply to -1.3%, weaker than economist forecast at -0.5%, hinting the US economy had hammered tremendously by the virus. As of writing, dollar index rose 0.27% to 100.20.
In the commodities market, crude oil prices depreciates by 0.05% to $25.95 per barrel as OPEC monthly report showed that OPEC members slash the forecast of global oil demand in year 2020. In details, OPEC reduced the oil demand projection by 2.23 million barrels a day to a total amount of 9.07 million bpd this year. Despite, an unexpectedly drop in US oil inventories has successfully covered all the losses yesterday. According to EIA, US Crude Oil Inventories data came in at -0.745M, blowing the estimates at 4.147M. Besides, gold price inched up 0.02% to $1717.05 amid heightening of market risk-off sentiment.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
23:15 CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 3,169K | 2,500K | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 99.75. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 100.85.
Resistance level: 100.85, 102.90
Support level: 99.75, 98.30
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.2215. MACD which illustrates diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.2305.
Resistance level: 1.2305, 1.2370
Support level: 1.2215, 1.2115
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.0830. Due to lack of signal from MACD, it is suggested to wait for further confirmation before entering into market.
Resistance level: 1.0940, 1.1025
Support level: 1.0830, 1.0765
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 107.20. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 106.25.
Resistance level: 107.20, 108.20
Support level: 106.25, 105.55
AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.6555. MACD which illustrates bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6370.
Resistance level: 0.6555, 0.6705
Support level: 0.6370, 0.6180
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.5995. MACD which illustrates bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.5945.
Resistance level: 0.5995, 0.6065
Support level: 0.5945, 0.5850
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.4120. MACD which illustrates diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.3980.
Resistance level: 1.4120, 1.4240
Support level: 1.3980, 1.3855
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.9710. MACD which illustrates bullish bias momentum with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.9750.
Resistance level: 0.9750, 0.9795
Support level: 0.9710, 0.9660
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 26.40. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level at 26.40.
Resistance level: 26.40, 28.75
Support level: 23.15, 20.10
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following while currently testing the resistance level at 1718.20. MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum signal suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1718.20, 1726.05
Support level: 1709.45, 1695.15