14 August 2020 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar retreat following fading stimulus hopes.
The dollar index which traded against a basket of six major currency pairs have fell during early Asian session as hopes for additional economic stimulus fades due to impasse from Democrats and Republicans. On data front, initial jobless claims came in stronger with the reading of 963k, surpassed market expectation of 1120K. However, the data still did not manage to help the greenback regain its confidence as the deadlock in latest stimulus package continues to weigh heavily. As of now, U.S. lawmaker still could not achieve any sort of consensus regarding the country’s latest Covid-19 stimulus package, a deal that many feel is necessary to keep the economic recovery on track. U.S. President Donald Trump have accused Democrats of not wanting to negotiate over the package, with Republican and Democratic negotiators blame each other as negotiations ended without a result for the fifth day. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin stated that the US economy will take another downturn if U.S fail to provide more financial aid. At the time of writing, dollar index slips 0.22% to 93.18.
In the commodities market, crude oil price fell 0.15% to $42.33 per barrel as of writing following negative forecast from IEA. According to reports, IEA stated that it now sees global oil demand for 2020 at 91.1 million barrels per day, reflecting a fall of 8.1 million barrels per day year-on-year. The revised forecast is 140,000 barrels per day lower than the IEA’s previous projection. On the other hand, gold price rebounds 0.33% to $1960.38 a troy ounce at the time of writing amid dollar weakness and retreat.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20.30 | USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) | 7.3% | 1.3% | – |
| 20.30 | USD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) | 7.5% | 1.9% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index remain traded in a sideway channel. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the dollar to be traded higher in short term towards the resistance level 94.00.
Resistance level: 94.00, 95.70
Support level: 92.45, 90.70
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remain traded in a sideway channel while currently testing near the support level 1.3005. However, MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the recent formation of golden cross suggest the pair to be traded higher towards the resistance level 1.3200.
Resistance level: 1.3200, 1.3320
Support level: 1.3005, 1.2810
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD remain traded in a sideway channel following recent rebound from the support level 1.1705. However, MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.1895.
Resistance level: 1.1895, 1.1985
Support level: 1.1705, 1.1575
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded flat while currently testing the support level 106.75. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to be traded lower after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 107.40, 108.05
Support level: 106.75, 106.20
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.7190. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.7075.
Resistance level: 0.7190, 0.7290
Support level: 0.7075, 0.6970
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following recent retracement from the resistance level 0.6590. MACD which illustrate bearish bias suggest the pair to extend its losses in short term towards the support level 0.6510.
Resistance level: 0.6590, 0.6685
Support level: 0.6510, 0.6395
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1.3195. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to experience a technical correction towards the resistance level 1.3330.
Resistance level: 1.3330, 1.3485
Support level: 1.3195, 1.3095
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 0.9065. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.9230, 0.9365
Support level: 0.9065, 0.8985
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 42.60. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the commodity to experience a technical correction towards the support level 41.05.
Resistance level: 42.60, 43.55
Support level: 41.05, 39.60
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1970.60. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1970.60, 2016.10
Support level: 1908.55, 1857.95