15 February 2023 Afternoon Session Analysis
Pound flips amid investor fears on UK recessions.
The Pound Sterling, as one of the major traded currencies by global investors, was traded lower following a strong rebound in the previous trading session. Initially, a series of strong labor market data including a negative changes in unemployment claims for the month of January and a lower unemployment rate of 3.7%, contributed some gains to the pound. However, the fears of investors over the possibility of the UK economy might slip into recession offset the pound’s upside. According to a Reuter’s poll, the UK economy is currently experiencing a recession, while the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) intending to further increase the interest rate to curb the high inflation pressures. Besides, the drop in GBP was extended following the release of mixed CPI data from the US. The January CPI in yearly reading stood at 6.4%, slightly higher than the market expectation of 6.2% but still lower than the prior month’s 6.5%. This result gave the Fed to have more room for further monetary tightening. Thus, it strengthened the value of dollar index, urging the pound according to slip against US dollar. As of writing, the GBP/USD slipped -0.26% to $1.2138.
In the commodities market, crude oil prices dropped by -1.21% to $78.10 per barrel amid American Petroleum Institute (API) reported crude oil inventories were in a surplus over the past week. Besides, gold prices edged down to -0.67% to $1852.85 per troy ounce amid the strengthening of dollar index.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
17:00 CrudeOIL IEA Monthly Report
22:00 EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:00 | GBP – CPI (YoY) (Jan) | 10.5% | 10.2% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) | -1.1% | 0.7% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) | -1.1% | 1.6% | – |
| 23:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | 2.423M | 1.166M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following a prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 103.00. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the index to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 104.45.
Resistance level: 103.00, 104.45
Support level: 101.70, 100.35
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing for the support level at 1.2105. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses if successfully break below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.2230, 1.2445
Support level: 1.2145,1.2010
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.0790. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.0635.
Resistance level: 1.0790,1.0900
Support level: 1.0635, 1.0470
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following the prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 132.30. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the pair to undergo technical correction in short-term.
Resistance level: 134.55, 136.30
Support level: 132.30, 130.25
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following a prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after toward the support level at 0.6945.
Resistance level: 0.7040, 0.7120
Support level: 0.6945, 0.6870
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following a prior break below the previous support level at 0.6325. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6265.
Resistance level: 0.6325, 0.6400
Support level: 0.6265, 0.6195
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following a prior rebound from the support level at 1.3330. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.3420.
Resistance level: 1.3420, 1.3515
Support level: 1.3330, 1.3250
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following the prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.9240
Resistance level: 0.9240, 0.9320
Support level: 0.9195, 0.9140
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing for the support level at 78.70. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses if successfully break below the support level.
Resistance level: 81.60,85.25
Support level: 78.70, 76.05
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following the prior rebound from the support level at 1847.55. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggests the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1876.90.
Resistance level: 1876.90, 1900.20
Support level: 1847.55, 1819.15