15 April 2021 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar plunged amid Powell’s dovish stance over monetary policy path.
The dollar index which gauges its value against a basket of six major currencies failed to recoup from its previous losses while lingering near the lowest level in one month after Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated his ‘hard stance’ over the interest rate in short term. Overnight, Powell revealed that the boards of Fed did not see any raising rates until 2024 as the unprecedented risk remains as the major threat toward US economy. However, an adjustment over the unfolding monetary policy would still outcome-based, where they will start to loosen the monetary policy by reducing the bond purchase program before raising rates when only their nation’s economy are under sustainable growth with a 2% and above of inflation rates. Lastly, Jerome Powell also warned public that the main risk of US is another spike in Covid-19 cases, as the resurgence of pandemic would definitely put the US economy into freezing phrase once again. As of writing, dollar index dropped 0.24% to 91.65.
In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.11% to $62.85 per barrel as of writing after EIA showed a significant decline in US oil inventory level. According to the EIA, US Crude Oil Inventories level came in at -5.889M while the economist forecast was at -2.889M, indicated an increasing of demand in oil market. Besides, the gold price rose by 0.01% to $1736.00 per troy ounce amid weakening of dollar index.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
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Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
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Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM)(Mar) | -2.7% | 5.0% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 744K | 700K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Apr) | 51.8 | 42.0 | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Retail Sales (MoM)(Mar) | -3.0% | 5.9% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 91.60. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the index to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 91.95, 92.40
Support level: 91.60, 91.25
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher lower following prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its extend its losses toward the support level at 1.3725.
Resistance level: 1.3810, 1.3865
Support level: 1.3725, 1.3675
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.1990. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.1990, 1.2030
Support level: 1.1955, 1.1915
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 109.20. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 108.30.
Resistance level: 109.20, 110.00
Support level: 108.30, 107.00
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.7735. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level at 0.7735.
Resistance level: 0.7735, 0.7815
Support level: 0.7665, 0.7565
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.7110. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum signal suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.7170.
Resistance level: 0.7170, 0.7235
Support level: 0.7100, 0.7060
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.2510. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.2570, 1.2635
Support level: 1.2510, 1.2465
USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded lower higher following prior breakout above the resistance level at 0.9220. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.9280.
Resistance level: 0.9280, 0.9360
Support level: 0.9220, 0.9185
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 62.50. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 63.70.
Resistance level: 63.70, 65.40
Support level: 62.50, 61.30
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1735.05. MACD which illustrated bearish momentum signal suggest the commodity to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 1745.25, 1755.60
Support level: 1735.05, 1723.85