16 February 2023 Morning Session Analysis
US dollar buoyed amid decent Retail Sales data.
The dollar index, which is traded against a basket of six major currencies, extended its rally following the Retail Sales data showed a sharp increase over the month of January. According to the Census Bureau, US Retail Sales data came in at 2.3%, significantly higher than the consensus forecast at 0.8% while the previous reading was stood at -0.9%. On the other hand, the Core Retail Sales data, which excluding automobiles, also printed an outstanding result at 2.3%, beating the consensus estimation at 0.8%. Both data showed that the sales at retailer level are well-performing despite the rising inflation pressures. The dollar index moved up sharply right after the data were released as the upbeat data provided ample room for the Federal Reserve to tighten their monetary policy further if necessary. However, the eyes of the market participants are now gathered on another crucial inflation related data, which is the Producer Price Index (PPI). Earlier of the week, the US has released the long-awaited Consumer Price Index (CPI). However, the data confused the market with mixed reaction as the decline in the inflation pressures was missing the expectation of the economists. As of writing, the dollar index rose 0.63% to 103.85.
In the commodities market, crude oil prices were down by -0.20% to $78.70 per barrel after EIA reported its inventories level with a significant built over the past week. According to the EIA, the US Crude Oil Inventories data came in at 16.283M, missing the forecast at 1.166M.Besides, gold prices edged down by -1.00% to $1835.95 per troy ounce as the US dollar successfully regained its luster amid the upbeat retail sales data.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
17:00 EUR ECB Economic Bulletin
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 21:30 | USD – Building Permits (Jan) | 1.337M | 1.350M | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 196K | 200K | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Feb) | -8.9 | -7.4 | – |
| 21:30 | USD – PPI (MoM) (Jan) | -0.4% | 0.4% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher following a prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 103.15. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggests the index to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 105.00.
Resistance level: 105.00, 106.65
Support level: 103.15, 101.25
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.2105. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.2105, 1.2200
Support level: 1.1940, 1.1820
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.0670. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.0850, 1.0975
Support level: 1.0670, 1.0295
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 134.15. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 134.15, 136.45
Support level: 131.25, 128.60
AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.6985. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6860.
Resistance level: 0.6985, 0.7145
Support level: 0.6860, 0.6725
NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.6255. MACD which illustrated bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.6355, 0.6460
Support level: 0.6255, 0.6170
USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.3400. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.3400, 1.3505
Support level: 1.3265, 1.3155
USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.9225. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.9225, 0.9310
Support level: 0.9110, 0.9040
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded lower following the prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 76.10.
Resistance level: 81.80, 86.15
Support level: 76.10, 71.50
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1835.00 MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggests the commodity to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 1859.90, 1884.00
Support level: 1835.00, 1786.00