16 June 2021 Morning Session Analysis
US Dollar surged on hawkish expectation from Fed.
The Dollar Index which traded against a basket of six major currency pairs surged over the backdrop of high reading of inflation data yesterday, which raising concerns that the spiking price pressure following the post-Covid-19 economic reopening could prompt Federal Reserve to contract its monetary policy in order to combat the high inflation risk. According to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for last month had notched up significantly from the previous reading of 0.6% to 0.8%, exceeding the market forecast at 0.6%. As for now, market participants would continue to scrutinize the latest updates with regards of FOMC meeting to receive further trading signal. Nonetheless, the gains experienced by the US Dollar was limited following bleak retail sales data was released. According to Census Bureau, U.S. Core Retail Sales came in at -0.7%, weaker than the market forecast at 0.2%. As of writing, the Dollar Index appreciated by 0.02% to 90.51.
In the commodities market, the crude oil price surged 0.02% to 72.45 per barrel as of writing amid bullish inventory data. According to American Petroleum Institute, U.S. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock had declined significantly from the previous reading of -2.108M to -8.537M, better than the market forecast at -3.000M, which spurring the expectation on oil demand recovery following the rapid process of Covid-19 vaccine rollout. On the other hand, the gold price slumped 0.04% to $1858.05 per troy ounces as of writing amid strengthening US Dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
02:00 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
(17th)
02:00 USD FOMC Statement
(17th)
02:30 USD FOMC Economic Projections
(17th)
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 14:00 | GBP – CPI (YoY) (May) | 1.50% | 1.80% | – |
| 15:00 | CNY – Industrial Production (YoY) (May) | 9.80% | 8.90% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Building Permits (May) | 1.733M | 1.740M | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Core CPI (MoM) (May) | 0.50% | – | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | -5.241M | -2.036M | – |
| 02:00
(17th) |
USD – Fed Interest Rate Decision | 0.25% | 0.25% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 90.50. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the index to extend its losses toward support level at 90.25
Resistance level: 90.50. 90.75
Support level: 90.25, 89.85
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.4100. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.4100, 1.4235
Support level: 1.4005, 1.3915
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.2110. However, MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.2170, 1.2255
Support level: 1.2110, 1.2060
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 109.75. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 110.30, 110.90
Support level: 109.75, 109.05
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.7700. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.7700, 0.7805
Support level: 0.7645, 0.7585
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.7120. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.7225, 0.7300
Support level: 0.7125, 0.7060
USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.2035. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1.2380.
Resistance level: 1.2380, 1.2605
Support level: 1.2040, 1.1785
USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.8930. However, MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.9095, 0.9175
Support level: 0.8930, 0.8850
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 71.65. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 73.00, 74.15
Support level: 71.65, 70.45
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1857.10. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1908.40, 1957.95
Support level: 1857.10, 1814.35