16 October 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Dollar jitters following trade optimism fade.
Dollar index have slipped against a basket of six major rival pairs as optimism over trade negotiations between the two largest economic powerhouse starting to vanish. Despite markets initially cheered the “Phase 1” trade deal between U.S and China, the positive reaction was starting to fade as lack of clear details have caused investors to remain cautious. According to reports, China wants another high-level meeting at the end of October to finalize the details before Chinese Premier Xi Jinping agrees to sign it. As the trade deal remains uncertain for now, investors are playing it safe and also diversify their portfolio into safe-have markets while awaiting further signal from the development. At the time of writing, dollar index fell 0.03% to 97.96 while USD/JPY slips 0.15% to 108.68.
At the commodities market, crude oil price edge higher by 0.04% to $52.95 per barrel following signals from OPEC and its allies to further decrease the supply. According to reports, OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo stated that OPEC and allied producers “will do whatever (is) in its power” to sustain oil market stability beyond 2020, which help boosted the price for the commodity. On the other hand, gold price remain pressured and fell 0.08% to $1482.69 a troy ounce following higher-risk appetite prevailed on Wall Street.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
21:00 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | GBP – CPI (YoY)(Sep) | 1.7% | 1.8% | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – CPI (YoY)(Sep) | 1.0% | 0.9% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM)(Sep) | 0.0% | 0.2% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Retail Sales (MoM)(Sep) | 0.4% | 0.3% | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Core CPI (MoM)(Sep) | -0.1% | – | – |
| 04:30
(17th) |
CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | 4.100M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 98.35. However, due to lack of momentum and clear direction from MACD, it is suggested to wait until further signal appear before entering the market.
Resistance level: 98.35, 98.85
Support level: 97.70, 97.15
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1.2785. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to experience a technical correction in short term towards the support level 1.2685.
Resistance level: 1.2785, 1.2860
Support level: 1.2685, 1.2515
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded flat near the support level 1.1020. However, MACD which display bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level 1.1020.
Resistance level: 1.1075, 1.1155
Support level: 1.1020, 1.0965
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from its high levels. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal with the starting formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 108.45.
Resistance level: 109.20, 110.65
Support level: 108.45, 107.55
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 0.6745. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.6690.
Resistance level: 0.6745, 0.6805
Support level: 0.6690, 0.6635
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.6270. MACD which illustrate ongoing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.6325, 0.6355
Support level: 0.6270, 0.6235
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from support level 1.3185. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its rebound in short term towards the resistance level 1.3235.
Resistance level: 1.3235, 1.3300
Support level: 1.3185, 1.3135
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.9980. MACD which display bearish bias signal with the starting formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.0025, 1.0095
Support level: 0.9975, 0.9915
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price remain traded in a sideway channel following recent retracement from the resistance level 54.80. However, MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the commodity to be traded lower in short term towards the support level 51.45.
Resistance level: 54.80, 58.35
Support level: 51.45, 48.15
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1487.35. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1487.35, 1514.60
Support level: 1455.85, 1413.85