16 October 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Pound Sterling rose as positive prospect on Brexit.
GBP/USD surge yesterday amid to hope arise for the possibility to reach a Brexit deal within this week. Boris Johnson will be very soon to reach a Brexit deal after making major concessions to EU demands over the Irish border, cited Reuters. In fact, according to senior EU and British sources, a draft text of the agreement could now be published on Wednesday if Downing Street gives the final green light. Such positive sentiment was also supported by Jacob Rees-Mogg, Leader of the House of Common of UK, after he said that if Boris Johnson does emerge with a deal, he would pass it through parliament very quickly on a Saturday sitting. Besides that, Pound Sterling receive a bullish support after positive result of U.K. claimant count change was released. U.K Claimant Count Change came in at 21.1k, lower than the economist forecast, such positive result would also spark an increase in demand for the Pound Sterling. However, some of the bleak data which released on yesterday limited the gain on the pair. According to Office for National Statistics, U.K Average Earning Index + Bonus came in at 3.8%, lower than the economic forecast 4.0% and U.K unemployment rate has notched up from 3.8% to 3.9% for the month of August, spurring a sell-off for Pound Sterling. As of writing, GBP/USD slump 0.20% to 1.2758 and EUR/USD rose 0.02% to 1.1032 as latest news suggested that EU and U.K. were closing in on a deal and going to end the economically damaging Brexit issues on 31st October.
In the commodities market, crude oil price slump yesterday amid to investors focus on gloomy economic outlook and abundant crude supplies in the world’s largest economy, cited Bloomberg. Gold price tumbled on Tuesday as positive expectation for Brexit issue. As of writing, crude oil price rose 0.04% to $52.92 per barrel and Gold price slump 0.02% to $1480.70 per troy ounces.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
21:00 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | GBP – CPI (YoY)(Sep) | 1.7% | 1.8% | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – CPI (YoY)(Sep) | 1.0% | 0.9% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM)(Sep) | 0.0% | 0.2% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Retail Sales (MoM)(Sep) | 0.4% | 0.3% | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Core CPI (MoM)(Sep) | -0.1% | – | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | 2.927M | 1.413M | – |
| 04:30
(17th) |
CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | 4.100M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 97.95 MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 98.15,98.35
Support level: 97.95, 97.75
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.2585. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1.2735.
Resistance level: 1.2735, 1.2870
Support level: 1.2585, 1.2425
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD ws traded higher after it successfully breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.1020. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gain toward resistance level at 1.1050.
Resistance level: 1.1050, 1.1070
Support level: 1.1020, 1.1000
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 108.50. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 108.50, 109.10
Support level: 107.65, 106.70
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.6765. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.6765, 0.6795
Support level: 0.6745, 0.6710
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.6310. MACD which illustrated bearish signal suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term.
Resistance level: 0.6310, 0.6320
Support level: 0.6295, 0.6285
USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.3200. However, MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.3335, 1.3415
Support level: 1.3200, 1.3140
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.9985. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.9985, 1.0000
Support level: 0.9965, 0.9940
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 52.65. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 53.55, 54.20
Support level: 52.65, 52.05
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1478.65. However, MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest its price to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1493.20, 1502.90
Support level: 1478.65, 1469.35