16 December 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar index slumped amid to risk-on sentiment
Dollar index which gauge its value against a basket of six major currencies edged lower on Friday amid to positive prospect for the trade deal between U.S. and China and an election victory for Britain’s Brexit-backing Conservative Party appeared, which stoked a shift in sentiment toward riskier asset and spurred some selloff for the safe-haven asset such as the greenback. According to US officials, the United States had suspended tariffs on Chinese goods due to take effect on yesterday, spurring some hopes upon the resolution of trade war. In addition, a trade deal is expected to be signed the first week of January in Washington. In fact, dollar index received a further bearish momentum following the bleak data from the U.S. region was released on last Friday. According to Census Bureau, U.S. Retail sales for the last month notched down from 0.4% to 0.2%, weaker than the economist forecast at 0.5%. Meanwhile, the U.S. Core retail sales came in at 0.1%, lower than the economist forecast at 0.4%. The data both fared worse than expectation, dialling down the market optimism towards economic progression in the United States, spurring further sell-off for the greenback. As of writing, the Dollar Index depreciated by 0.04% to 97.12 while GBP/USD surged 0.18% to 1.3348 following a resounding election victory for the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party.
In the commodities market, the crude oil price surged 0.05% to $59.72 per barrel. Oil price edged higher as market participants expected the resolution of trade war may improve the global economic growth, which would be spurring the demand for the commodity in the future. On the other hand, gold price slumped 0.09% to $1473.99 per troy ounces amid to trade optimism between U.S. and China, which spurring some sell-off for the safe-haven metal.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Dec) | 44.1 | 44.5 | |
| 17:30 | GBP – Composite PMI | 49.3 | – | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – Manufacturing PMI | 48.9 | – | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – Service PMI | 49.3 | – | – |
| 22:45 | US – Markit Composite PMI (Dec) | 52.0 | – | |
| 22:45 | US – Manufacturing PMI | 52.6 | 52.6 | – |
| 22:45 | US – Service PMI (Dec) | 51.6 | 52.0 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: The dollar index was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 96.95. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the index to extend its gains toward resistance level at 97.35.
Resistance level: 97.35, 97.70
Support level: 96.95, 96.70
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.3490. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 1.3220.
Resistance level: 1.3490, 1.3685
Support level: 1.3220, 1.2985
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.1165. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 1.1080.
Resistance level: 1.1165, 1.1220
Support level: 1.1080, 1.0995
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 109.40. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 109.40, 109.70
Support level: 109.00, 108.60
AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.6860. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.6925, 0.6985
Support level: 0.6860, 0.6800
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.6600. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 0.6530.
Resistance level:0.6600, 0.6660
Support level: 0.6530, 0.6475
USDCAD, DAILY: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.3140. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout the support level.
Resistance level: 1.3200, 1.3265
Support level: 1.3140, 1.3065
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.9810. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 0.9860.
Resistance level: 0.9860, 0.9895
Support level: 0.9810, 0.9765
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 58.85. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 60.70, 62.00
Support level: 58.85, 57.35
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1475.60. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward support level at 1459.25
Resistance level: 1475.60, 1488.25
Support level: 1459.25, 1445.80