16 December 2020 Afternoon Session Analysis
Dollar slumped ahead of FOMC meeting.
The Dollar Index which traded against a basket of six major currencies pairs extend its losses over the backdrop of the string of downbeat economic data on yesterday. According to Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the U.S. NY Empire State Manufacturing Index notched down significantly from the previous reading of 6.30 to 4.90, worse than the market forecast at 6.90. Meanwhile, the U.S. Industrial Production for last month also declined significantly from the preliminary reading of 0.9% to 0.4%. Such negative economic data had spurred expectation for ongoing cues of further expansionary Monetary Policy during the FOMC meeting. As for now, market participants expected the Federal Reserve to maintain its interest rate pinned near zero while extending its bond-buying program. Besides, the positive prospect over the aggressive U.S. stimulus plan had increased the inflation risk in future, which dragging down the appeal for the US Dollar. According to Reuters, the Top U.S. Congressional leaders began a second meeting on Tuesday in order to finalise $1.4 trillion Covid-19 aids. Nonetheless, investors would continue to scrutinize the latest updates with regards of the results of the FOMC meeting as well as the massive economic stimulus plan from U.S. government in order to receive further trading signal. As of writing, the dollar index depreciated by 0.03% to 90.32.
In the commodities market, the crude oil price surged 0.05% to $47.65 per barrel as of writing amid investors remained optimism over the Covid-19 vaccine development, which spurring further bullish momentum in this black-commodity. On the other hand, the gold price surged 0.22% to $1857.20 per troy ounces as of writing amid weakening US Dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
3.00 USD FOMC Economic Projections
(17th Dec)
3.00 USD FOMC Statement
(17th Dec)
3.30 USD FOMC Press Conference
(17th Dec)
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15.00 | GBP – CPI (YoY) (Nov) | 0.7% | 0.6% | – |
| 16.30 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Dec) | 57.8 | 56.4 | – |
| 17.30 | GBP – Composite PMI | 49.0 | – | – |
| 17.30 | GBP – Manufacturing PMI | 55.6 | – | – |
| 17.30 | GBP – Services PMI | 47.6 | – | – |
| 21.30 | USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) | 0.2% | 0.1% | – |
| 21.30 | USD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) | 0.3% | -0.3% | – |
| 21.30 | CAD – Core CPI (MoM) (Nov) | 0.4% | – | – |
| 23.30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | 15.189M | -1.937M | – |
| 3.00 (17th Dec) | USD – Fed Interest Rate Decision | 0.25% | 0.25% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 90.60. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the index to extend its losses toward the support level at 90.15.
Resistance level: 90.60, 91.10
Support level: 90.15, 89.95
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the top level of falling wedge. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.3470.
Resistance level: 1.3470, 1.3535
Support level: 1.3385, 1.3290
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.2135. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.2175.
Resistance level: 1.2175, 1.2210
Support level: 1.2135, 1.2105
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 103.65. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower after it successfully breakout below the support level at 103.65.
Resistance level: 104.00, 104.35
Support level: 103.65, 103.15
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.7565. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.7565, 0.7605
Support level: 0.7520, 0.7480
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.7100. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level at 0.7100.
Resistance level: 0.7100, 0.7175
Support level: 0.7015, 0.6960
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.2715. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.2670.
Resistance level: 1.2715, 1.2815
Support level: 1.2670, 1.2625
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently near the support level at 0.8855. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level at 0.8855.
Resistance level: 0.8915, 0.8985
Support level: 0.8855, 0.8780
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 47.10. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 48.15.
Resistance level: 48.15, 49.40
Support level: 47.10, 46.45
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1844.50. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1859.95.
Resistance level: 1859.95, 1870.15
Support level: 1844.50, 1830.65