16 December 2020 Morning Session Analysis
Pounds soars as odds of Brexit deal increases.
During early Asian session, the pound sterling which traded against the dollar and other currency pairs have soared following recent comments from EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier which signalled Brexit deal still can be reach. According to his statement, a post-Brexit trade and security deal could be sealed as early as this week after Boris Johnson made a key concession at the weekend which allow both sides to progress in trade negotiations. However, Barnier also warned that an agreement pathway remained ‘very narrow’. Still, market remain cautiously optimistic about progress in UK-EU trade talks. At the same time, with the UK economy expected to recover following the rollouts of Covid-19 vaccines, investors are also becoming more hopeful about the British economy, thus increasing their bid on the pound sterling. At the time of writing, GBP/USD rose 0.11% to 1.3445.
In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.09% to $47.71 per barrel as of writing despite with increasing crude supply. According to API, U.S oil stockpiles have rose for the fifth-straight week by 1.973 million barrels last week. Despite that, market remains optimistic and focus on the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines. On the other hand, gold price also rose 0.06% to 1853.12 a troy ounce at the time of writing amid dollar weakness and stimulus expectation.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
3.00 USD FOMC Economic Projections
(17th Dec)
3.00 USD FOMC Statement
(17th Dec)
3.30 USD FOMC Press Conference
(17th Dec)
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15.00 | GBP – CPI (YoY) (Nov) | 0.7% | 0.6% | – |
| 16.30 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Dec) | 57.8 | 56.4 | – |
| 17.30 | GBP – Composite PMI | 49.0 | – | – |
| 17.30 | GBP – Manufacturing PMI | 55.6 | – | – |
| 17.30 | GBP – Services PMI | 47.6 | – | – |
| 21.30 | USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) | 0.2% | 0.1% | – |
| 21.30 | USD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) | 0.3% | -0.3% | – |
| 21.30 | CAD – Core CPI (MoM) (Nov) | 0.4% | – | – |
| 23.30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | 15.189M | -1.937M | – |
| 3.00 (17th Dec) | USD – Fed Interest Rate Decision | 0.25% | 0.25% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 90.55. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the dollar to extend its losses towards the support level 89.95.
Resistance level: 90.55, 91.40
Support level: 89.95, 89.35
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following recent rebound from the support level 1.3300. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains in short term towards the resistance level 1.3505.
Resistance level: 1.3505, 1.3735
Support level: 1.3300, 1.3150
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD remain traded in sideway channel while currently testing near the resistance level 1.2165. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish bias signal suggest the pair to be traded lower in short term towards the support level 1.2010.
Resistance level: 1.2165, 1.2355
Support level: 1.2010, 1.1895
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY remain traded in a sideway channel while currently testing the support level 10.65. However, MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to be traded lower after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 104.50, 105.15
Support level: 103.65, 103.20
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.7555. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.7555, 0.7655
Support level: 0.7450, 0.7340
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 0.7095. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.7095, 0.7175
Support level: 0.7010, 0.6900
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.2680. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.2830, 1.2955
Support level: 1.2680, 1.2540
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF remain traded in a sideway channel while currently testing the support level 0.8850. However, MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to be traded lower after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.8920, 0.8985
Support level: 0.8850, 0.8775
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following recent rebound from the support level 46.40. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 48.60.
Resistance level: 48.60, 50.85
Support level: 46.40, 43.45
GOLD_, H4: Gold price remain traded in a sideway channel while currently testing the resistance level 1850.45. However, MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the commodity to be traded higher after it breaks above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1850.45, 1881.25
Support level: 1815.15, 1769.75