16 December 2021 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar slumped as profit-taking, bull market still on as Fed’s hawkish tone.
The Dollar Index which traded against a basket of six major currency pairs retracement from the recent high amid technical correction and profit-taking mood from the global investors. Nonetheless, the overall trend for the US Dollar was remained bullish following the Federal Reserve unleashed their hawkish tone toward the economic development in United States. According to CNBC, the US Central Bank claimed that the process of bond tapering program would be needed to speed up, suggesting the stimulus will end by March to combat the upcoming inflation risk. The recent inflation data had indicated the prices rising at a pace not seen since 1982, increased pressure for the Federal Reserve to take further action. Nonetheless, the Federal Reserve decided to maintain its benchmark rate unchanged in the range of 0% to 0.25%. Meanwhile, 12 of the 18 members of Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) say they expect the interest rates rises by three-quarters of a percent or more in 2022. As of writing, the Dollar Index depreciated by 0.25% to 96.30.
In the commodities market, the crude oil price surged 0.22% to $71.85 per barrel as of writing. The oil market edged higher over the backdrop of bullish inventory data yesterday. According to Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. Crude Oil Inventories came in at -4.584M, lower than the market forecast at -2.082M. On the other hand, the gold price appreciated by 0.20% to $1780.40 per troy ounces as of writing amid weakening US Dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
16:30 CHF SNB Monetary Policy Assessment
17:30 CHF SNB Press Conference
20:00 GBP BoE MPC Meeting Minutes
21:30 EUR ECB Press Conference
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | CHF – SNB Interest Rate Decision (Q4) | -0.75% | -0.75% | – |
| 16:30 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Dec) | 57.4 | 57 | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – Composite PMI | 57.6 | – | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – Manufacturing PMI | 58.1 | – | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – Services PMI | 58.5 | – | – |
| 20:00 | GBP – BoE Interest Rate Decision (Dec) | 0.10% | 0.10% | – |
| 20:45 | EUR – Deposit Facility Rate (Dec) | -0.50% | -0.50% | – |
| 20:45 | EUR – ECB Marginal Lending Facility | 0.25% | – | – |
| 20:45 | EUR – ECB Interest Rate Decision (Dec) | 0.00% | – | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Building Permits (Nov) | 1.653M | 1.660M | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 184K | 195K | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Dec) | 39 | 30 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 96.50. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the index to extend its losses toward support level at 95.65.
Resistance level: 96.50, 96.90
Support level: 95.65, 94.90
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.3195. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1.3355.
Resistance level: 1.3355, 1.3505
Support level: 1.3195, 1.3050
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.1370. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 1.1175.
Resistance level: 1.1370, 1.1530
Support level: 1.1175, 1.1010
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 114.40. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 114.40, 115.40
Support level: 112.80, 112.05
AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.7175. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.7175, 0.7280
Support level: 0.6995, 0.6825
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.6735. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 0.6815.
Resistance level: 0.6815, 0.6890
Support level: 0.6735, 0.6640
USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.2870. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.2870, 1.3020
Support level: 1.2720, 1.2595
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.9260. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 0.9200.
Resistance level: 0.9260, 0.9315
Support level: 0.9200, 0.9155
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 70.35. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward resistance level at 72.65.
Resistance level: 72.65, 75.10
Support level: 68.65, 65.60
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1762.20. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1790.00.
Resistance level: 1790.00, 1811.50
Support level: 1762.20, 1729.60